The economic outlook of inflation of the first half of April, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), shows an increase in the prices of fruits and vegetables, which has contributed to the general increase in inflation. During this period, general inflation increased by 0.09% fortnightly and reached 4.63% annually, figures that exceeded previous projections.
Citibanamex’s estimates for annual general and underlying inflation at the end of 2024 remain at 4.3% and 4.4% respectively, with balanced risks. Annual general inflation has increased to 4.6% from the 4.4% recorded fifteen days ago before the INEGI study.
Fruits and vegetables
It is important to highlight that the institute detailed that, according to its biweekly observed rate, the costs of agricultural products rose by 1.68; specifically, fruits and vegetables during this fortnight, was higher than estimated, registering an increase of 3.38% fortnightly. This increase is largely due to the strong growth in the prices of products such as tomatoes and chilies.
Despite the decrease in electricity prices, which partially offset the increase in fruit and vegetable prices, the inflation non-core annual was at 5.38%, showing an increase from the previous fortnight.
“The fruit and vegetable prices registered a greater increase than estimated, of 3.38% biweekly, since tomatoes and chilis registered strong growth in their prices. On the contrary, energy prices decreased -2.45% biweekly, due to the seasonal drop in electricity rates as warm season subsidies began in some cities.” According to Citibanamex-Economic Studies with data from INEGI.
Sinaloa
The PhD in Economics, academic and researcher at the Autonomous University of Sinaloa, UAS, Cristina Ibarra explained that, during 2023, the countryside in Mexico, not only in Sinaloa, has gone through important crises to supply the markets to the point of having different problems in each region, such as climate, credit, insecurity, among others, which complicate the production of foods and their commercialization, but they are trends that, just as they rise, can also fall.
“The issue of tomatoes and onions, there are foods that suddenly go up a lot in price and then go down. There are very high trends or peaks, which then slow down; Even so, as inflation always accumulates, the expectation is that they will continue with a high price and that definitely affects the family economy, each time one has to dedicate a more significant part of that income to be able to eat healthily,” he explained.
If the average general inflation is 34%, the inflation in fruits and vegetables at last, already counting the accumulated inflation since 2018, we have that in fruits and vegetables it is 61% against the general, that is, we are talking about more double.
The economics specialist, as in the Citibanamex study, agrees that the prices of these products can vary, depending on factors that affect both the producers and the product itself.
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