By: José María Gaxiola, Director of El Trocadero CAADES:
As of March 2024the dams in Mexico they find each other at 15.8% of its capacitya alarming figure If we consider that the average of the last forty years for this same month is 41%. This means that we currently have less than half the water reserved in dams compared with the last three decades.
It is important to distinguish between drought and water crisis. Although they may seem similar, they are not the same. The drought refers to the lack of rainfall, while the water crisis is related to the lack of capacity storage in the dams. In Mexico, 117 dams operate below 50% of their filling capacity, according to data from the National Water Commission (CONAGUA). The lack of rain worsens drought in the country, especially in the northern and central regions, where the lowest levels are reported.
The decrease in stored wateralong with the reduction of rains and the increase in temperatures, poses a challenging scenario for the supply of water resources. The situation is particularly critical in some areas that report a 37% deficit in capacity.
The drought It is affecting 28.7% of the territory with extreme and exceptional conditions, while 32.5% is experiencing moderate to severe droughts. The most affected states are Sinaloa, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Tamaulipas, Querétaro and Michoacán. Furthermore, temperatures have reached record highs in January, exacerbating the dry situation in already vulnerable regions.
In the particular case of Sinaloa, all 18 municipalities are experiencing some degree of drought, according to data from Conagua's Mexico Drought Monitor, and the dams are at 12.5 percent capacity.
Additionally, it is worrying that 91% of the population of Sinaloa lives in municipalities that suffer from extreme drought and exceptional drought, the two most serious levels of drought.
This water deficit has affected planting, with a 20% drop. In other words, one in every five hectares was not planted. In the case of corn, the planting area fell by 45%. Of the 6.5 million tons that Sinaloa produces, only 3.5 million tons could be produced this year.
The issue of the water crisis in Mexico has productive, economic and social repercussions, which impacts food sovereignty. According to USDA reports, Mexico produced up to 29 million tons of corn in its boom years. Today, a production of 24 million tons is expected, which means that we will import around 22 million tons of yellow corn this year.
This year, due to the drought, the grain food security index is estimated at 50 percent, which raises alarm bells since we will be more dependent on imports to feed our population and maintain our industries and livestock.
In the case of white corn for human consumption, there is limited international exportable production, so we are depending at this time on the production of Sinaloa, which, as stated previously, is very reduced this year.
This phenomenon, from an economic point of view, increases our vulnerability to fluctuations in international prices and conditions in foreign markets. Socially, it has an impact on food security due to the increase in food prices, which has been one of the most difficult concepts to control along with services.
It is therefore crucial that measures are taken to address this growing dependence on food imports, particularly grains. This could include policies to promote domestic agricultural production, investment in more efficient irrigation technologies to address drought, and education programs to encourage responsible and sustainable consumption. It is also essential that measures be taken to mitigate the effects of drought and more efficiently manage our water resources, to ensure a sustainable future for food production in Mexico.
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