Japanese GP: Red Bull victory shows what Ferrari is missing | FP

By Carlo Platella
Red Bull wins and convinces. Max Verstappen sweeps away the doubts that arose in testing in Australia, a race that was never actually held, and exacerbated in Japan by concerns on Saturday about what the tire management would have been. The stopwatch reads twenty seconds ahead of Ferrari, increasingly consistent and for which the podium is starting to feel tight. The updates will be fundamental for the next races, with which the world champions advance.

Red Bull, bet won

It will be said that those regarding Red Bull's race pace were futile doubts, resulting from a greater fuel load than the competition. Yet the doubts about tire management were concrete, tangible both in the words of the riders and Helmut Marko, outlining a potentially even more critical situation on Sunday, with the asphalt 10°C warmer. Red Bull had to take a gamble on a last minute set-up change, heading almost blindly into qualifying and the race. The final result repays the team's bet, aware however of having taken a risk and reiterating the importance for the opponents of applying pressure.

In the race Verstappen was the author of excellent stints, especially the initial one, where the advantage over Norris' McLaren exceeded 6 tenths per lap, while six months ago it was less than half a second. Suzuka reinforces the impression of one Red Bull particularly competitive in the initial stages of the race, the most aggressive ones for the tyres, but in which the car also moves differently compared to the ground, weighed down by a full tank of fuel. Japan confirms how the new RB20 is superior to the previous one not so much for aerodynamic load and absolute performance, but for consistency of performance in a wide spectrum of conditions.

The checkered flag certifies an intact advantage over the second force, now Ferrari and no longer McLaren. However, it should be considered that in 2023 Norris, 2nd at the finish line, competed in a race almost entirely on a free track. This year, however, Ferrari and McLaren disturb each other, also juggling the traffic of Mercedes, Alonso and Leclerc and optimizing the strategy for track positions rather than for the final time. In this Red Bull reaps the fruits ofaggressiveness in qualifyingmonopolizing the front row and defending it in both starts, another phase in which the world champions remain impeccable.

The Ferrari doubt

The Reds once again showed a good race pace, regretting the subpar qualifying. However, it remains unlikely that Ferrari could have fought for victory by starting close to the Red Bulls. With the same tire and in free track conditions, in the second half of the central stint Sainz laps between 3 and 4 tenths slower than Verstappen. The double in Australia had rightly raised very high expectations, which however risk overshadowing the quality of the work done so far. On one of the most technical circuits of the year the SF-24 proves to be docile on the tyres, well balanced and without particular defects. The final gap was halved compared to six months ago, despite a race that was very conditioned by the battles on the track.

The consistency of the Red Army also ensures greater strategic flexibility. On two occasions they tried to delay the stop with Sainz and then try to overtake on the track, something utopian with the 2023 car, which broke down and overheated the tires as soon as it came in the slipstream of another car. Ferrari is also the only one to make the single-stop strategy work with Leclerc, able to read the evolution of the track, which cooled by 10° during the race. Sainz's admission, who explains that he too had considered a single pit stop, attests to the docility of the SF-24 on the tyres, but raises another doubt. In a race in which double stopping was the fastest strategy on average, it is natural to ask ourselves whether the Spaniard still had some rubber to exploit, an indication of an approach to the weekend that is far too conservative.

Question of balance

There has been a lot of talk about Ferrari's lower competitiveness in qualifying compared to the race. However, this is a much broader issue, which concerns the compromise between management and exploitation of rubber, between consistency of rhythm and absolute times, not only on Saturday, but also in competition. A balance in which Red Bull proves superior at Suzuka, with the doubt whether, with a different set-up, the Cavallino could express an even better pace. In fact, the balance between the two aspects is not something immutable and linked solely to the design of the car, but on which it is possible to intervene. The qualifying tire preparation lap will be reviewed immediately in Maranello, also evaluating different suspension settings for a better race pace.

Progress will obviously also depend on the development of the car, with the first updates for the Cavallino arriving between Miami and Imola. While in Red Bull moves forward, introducing an important package of innovations in Japan, a month ahead of its rivals. In this, the world champions still benefit from the time invested in 2023, with the development of the RB19 interrupted months earlier, thus anticipating both the basic configuration of the RB20 and the first updates.

Opponents always distant

At Suzuka Ferrari is one of the very few teams to come significantly closer to Red Bull, establishing itself as one of the teams that have worked best in recent months. In Japan McLaren goes from second to third force, with ten seconds more delay at the finish line for Norris, conditioned however by the time lost in the fight with the Reds. After the excellent management of graining seen in Australia, the Woking car appears reasonably good even when the limiting factor is tire degradation. They are particularly competitive Norris' times in the final stint with the tank now empty, identical to those of Leclerc with the same tyre. Less friendly tracks will now arrive for McLaren, but also the updates promised long ago by Andrea Stella.

Sixth at the finish line is Fernando Alonso, who once again maximizes his points haul. In Suzuka Aston Martin introduces a large package of new features, which for the moment do not seem to alter the balance of the car, as happened in 2023. The Silverstone team shaves 30 seconds off the final delay from Verstappen, who still breaks 40 seconds. He still remains behind Mercedes, forced to try an alternative strategy to compensate for the lack of pace. Suzuka was one of the worst tracks for the W15, but the team can start again from the positive sensations returned by the drivers, timid signs of improvements.

The points area closes Racing Bulls, driven by the excellent Tsunoda and the first important updates to the fund. The one from Faenza is the best car in the second half of the grid, which has its first challenger in Haas. The VF-24 leaves behind the futile flying lap exploits of last season, to make room for a drivable car, docile on the tires and constant on the pace, a quality in common with Ferrari.