Ecuador celebrates three months since the declaration of internal conflict

ANDOn April 8, three months have passed since the president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, declared the “state of internal conflict” and deployed more than 30,000 security forces to confront scenes of violence related to drug trafficking that shocked (and shock) the country and, indeed, the world.

The panorama that is emerging is that of an apparent decline in homicides, but persistent levels of other types of crime, such as kidnappings and extortion; a lot of information that we simply don't know, as the Government tries to control the narrative and keep the country together; a very popular president, with an approval rating of 80%, and support from Ecuadorians for his offensive.

Noboa ordered the armed forces and the National Police to take to the streets to contain the criminal operations of up to 22 organized groups – including the infamous gang known as Los Choneros – currently operating in the Andean nation and connected to international cartels. bigger. His strategy has been compared by some analysts to the one that President Nayib Bukele has applied in El Salvador. The Ecuadorian president promised that he will respect the Constitution.

Real data on his government's performance has often been difficult to obtain, or have apparently been leaked to the media incompletely.

The Government has not officially published data on homicides since the repression began. The newspaper El País reported in mid-March that the number of homicides per day had been drastically reduced from 40 to 12, but he did not reveal the source or say when the comparative data was from. However, these figures did not include what happened on the last weekend of the month, in which 17 people died in three massacres.

“We have significantly improved in issues such as security, drastically reducing the number of daily violent deaths that were the byproduct of a State overcome by narcoterrorism,”

“We have significantly improved in issues such as security, drastically reducing the number of daily violent deaths that were the byproduct of a State overcome by narcoterrorism,” the president declared optimistically in one of the few interviews he has granted to local and international media. , in this case to CNN en Español, at the beginning of March.

Since Noboa established the state of emergency on January 8 until March 21, 14,765 people have been arrested, 280 of them on terrorism charges, according to the Ecuadorian Army. However, it is unclear how many of those detained have been charged or released.

Meanwhile, despite the increased security presence, between January and early March There were 1,543 cases of extortion and kidnappings, the Efe news agency reported in early March, citing data from the National Police. However, Efe did not provide comparative data at the national level and limited itself to saying that the increase in these cases in Guayaquil, the most populated city in the country, was five times compared to the same period in 2023.

In fact, One of the few clear conclusions is that Guayaquil continues to be ground zero of the fight. Its port is the most important in the country and has become a target for these groups that work for the Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generación cartels, as well as for the Albanian mafia, known as Los Albaneses. In 2019, military intelligence detected 10 groups operating in said city, but now, according to government data, there are a total of 20 organized crime entities that are vying for supremacy in Guayaqui, which are not only considered cartels or criminal gangs. , but also terrorist groups.

Ecuador's Constitutional Court ruled that the state of emergency was constitutional, and President Noboa extended it until April 8. Although that date is tomorrow, Local analysts consider that further extensions can be expected in the foreseeable futureas the State drags out a confrontation without a clear end point.

A popular president

Despite the murky first data, lEcuadorians seem to have found some relief after recent events and atrocities which claimed, among others, the life of the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August 2023.

Citizens perceive Noboa as “a president who is making decisions” in difficult circumstancesQuito-based analyst Max Donoso-Muller told Americas Quarterly. This tough stance on security is helping him a lot with his popularity while increasing his political capital. “I think his success lies in having formed a strong political team that has made the legislative majority work,” Donoso-Muller added.

With that popular support, Noboa has also achieved some political victories. His administration maneuvered to raise the value added tax (VAT) from 12 to 15%. At the same time, the Government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) an expanded facility agreement of 3,000 million dollars, which Noboa hopes can be sealed in the next three months.

The conversations are not easy, since Ecuador must pay $1.1 billion to the IMF in 2025 to repay previous loans. In addition to the VAT increase, the IMF may request a drastic reduction in fuel subsidies, which last year alone cost $2.3 billion, according to estimates by the nation's Central Bank.

First test

Noboa is trying to use the referendum “in his favor, to strengthen his race for the 2025 elections,” said Esteban Ron

With several moving parts, Noboa's administration will face another test on April 21, when Ecuadorians will vote in a referendum on the permanence of the armed forces patrolling the streets, stricter control of weapons and the increase in prison sentences for organized crime crimes, among other measures.

Noboa is trying to use the referendum “to his advantage, to strengthen his career for the 2025 elections,” said Esteban Ron, dean of the Law School at SEK University in Quito. Definitely, “If I didn't have high popularity, I wouldn't have made this consultation,” he added.

The referendum can easily become a plebiscite on Noboa's management, in which legislative changes take a backseat and become a tool with which citizens punish their leaders.

Shortly after the referendum, the presidential campaign season gets underway, as At the beginning of August, presidential candidacies must be registered for the February 2025 elections. It remains to be seen how this war will play out for Ecuador and its citizens.

Political journalist for 'El Comercio' from Ecuador. This article was published on March 21, before the country closed the month with a balance of 17 violent deaths between March 30 and 31.

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A week ago, Ecuador experienced an escalation of violence, in the midst of a certain calm that was perceived at a general level thanks to the exceptional measures of the government of Daniel Noboa.Three massacres were recorded between Holy Friday and Holy Saturday, in which 17 people died

. Despite the declaration of internal war against drug trafficking, the violence does not stop. At the beginning of Holy Week, The mayor of San Vicente, in Manabí, was shot in a new case of political violence.

And on Holy Wednesday, a riot in a prison in Guayaquil (southwest) left three prisoners dead and six injured. According to Noboa, The recent episodes “are not isolated events,” as they occurred a few days before the April 21 referendum