The presidential elections in Venezuela will be on July 28, a date that was announced after almost a year of rumors and waiting.
The announcement happens in the midst of political uncertainty on several fronts, the first with the disqualification of the main opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, and the second, the non-confirmation – until now – that Nicolás Maduro will seek a third re-election for Chavismo, something that seems obvious but does not look easy.
The latest opinion study by the pollster Datincorp showed that if the elections were held right now, 55 percent of Venezuelans would vote for the winner of the opposition primaries, María Corina Machado; 14 percent would do so for Maduro and 8 percent for other candidates.
The problem is that Machado is prevented by Justice and the Comptroller's Office from running in any popular election.
“Listen to me, those who are talking about a substitute, I have a surprise for you. Yes, here there is a substitute, the one who is going to replace Nicolás Maduro, which is me,” the former deputy said this week in front of dozens of supporters in the state of Barinas, a region that was taken from Chavismo in the last regional elections.
But although Machado insists that no one will replace her as opposition candidate, It is unlikely that the Government will give in by enabling it, even with pressure from the United States, which threatens to reimpose sanctions from April 18.
According to the schedule announced by the National Electoral Council, candidates must register between March 21 and 25, which, according to the analyst and director of the Datanalisis firm, Luis Vicente León, is the true key to the situation.
For Leon, The critical uncertainties that define the country's political scenarios are clear and are based on what will be Machado's response and strategy in the face of the irreversible impossibility of participating, what will be the action of the Unitary Platform or the traditional parties and, finally, what will be the US reaction
“Will you support the thesis of the illegality of the election that Machado will propose, repeating Juan Guaidó's experience, with probably the same result? Will he pressure Machado to concede with a substitute candidate who can run in the qualified election, or will he apply the law of advantage to a candidate named by the rest of the opposition, to allow the ball to remain in play and the opposition to have the option to create political momentum?” These are the still unanswered questions that León raises.
But for political scientist Gabriel Flores, from the Central University of Venezuela, Yes, it is possible that the opposition united under the Unitary Democracy Platform (PUD) will be able to define a candidacy to replace María Corina Machado.
But to do this, says Flores, the opposition “must exhaust all cards before stepping aside, including peacefully trying to register her candidacy with the National Electoral Council and exhaust all constitutional mechanisms.”
The political scientist also believes that Machado's team must consider that any substitution will have to be well planned so that it does not constitute a mechanism of hopelessness.
Likewise, various aspects must be considered so that the substitution does not have a “considerable demobilizing and despairing effect on Machado's followers”, so, for Flores, the substitute candidacy would have to be defined directly by María Corina and presented in the company of all the parties that make up the PUD, otherwise it would be a discouraging factor for its followers.
Before this panorama, The question is whether Chavismo has gained its way, especially after March 15, when the candidate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela is officially known..
And although the Government has more advantages over the opposition, there are those who consider that all is not lost.
The challenge for the opposition is not to lose focus on participating in the electoral route.
For Giulio Cellini, director of the consulting firm LOG Consultancy, although the opposition is at a crossroads, “that does not mean that it does not have a chance of victory in the presidential election if it acts strategically and comes in conditions of unity with the support of Machado and a substitute candidacy.”
For Cellini, this favorable condition of the opponents is due to the fact that in this process the Maduro government registers its highest disapproval rates, and “this is an opportunity that the opposition can capitalize on.” But, he adds, that is why he has to act strategically, “choose a substitute candidate that is as competitive as possible.”
For the analyst, It is also important that the opposition maintains the option of participating in the elections and not taking the route of abstention. “The challenge for the opposition is not to lose focus on participating in the electoral route,” insists Cellinia.
The Chavista strategy
“Amen, let's go to presidential elections!”Maduro said in a public event a few days ago. “I am sure that the people will fight their battle again and will once again win a great victory. “Long live Bolivarian democracy, long live freedom and the unity of the people!”the president insisted.
July 28 is an important date for Chavismo. That day is the birthday of the late Hugo Chávez, so it is likely that they will appeal to his memory to connect with people and obtain votes.
“Chavismo knows it is lost, opinion studies say so. There is no money like before to distribute benefits, so it will appeal to sentiment,” explains political scientist Carlos Zambrano.
Chavismo knows it is lost, opinion studies say so. There is no money like before to distribute benefits, so it will appeal to sentiment.
Another key factor will be international pressure, which after the Barbados agreement signed with the opposition in October, maintains hopes that the election can be “transparent, fair and verifiable.”
However, Machado insists on non-compliance with the agreement. This Saturday the opposition leader denounced “one more violation of the already trampled” agreement after a fourth leader of her campaign was arrested. This time it is Emil Brandt, whom the prosecution accuses of having links to “terrorist” plans against Maduro.
For its part, The United States points out that it supports the “democratic process” in Venezuela, despite the “transgressions” of the Maduro government, which is taking steps “in the wrong direction”said the head of US diplomacy for Latin America, Brian Nichols, on Thursday.
The government of US President Joe Biden last year partially lifted some of the sanctions imposed on Caracas in response to the agreement reached in October, which pursued several objectives: the release of some imprisoned Americans and Venezuelan political prisoners, putting date to the presidential elections and the lifting of the disqualification of all candidates for the elections. Everything has been accomplished, except Machado's authorization.
Now we have to wait for the development of the electoral schedule with special emphasis on the dates of March 21 to 25, when the final candidates register.
ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN – EL TIEMPO CORRESPONDENT – CARACAS
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