This Tuesday is the big day of the presidential primaries in the United Statesa key date known as Super Tuesday in which the largest number of delegates are distributed in a single day – more than 35 percent – and which can leave the candidacies practically resolved forto Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
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Although the presidential primaries began on January 15 in Iowa for the Republicans and on February 3 in South Carolina For Democrats, only a handful of states have since voted. These dates have traditionally served to define the favorites and for the candidates with less support to withdraw.
This is what happened this year with the Republicans, where Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy They withdrew from the race. And although former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the only Republican candidate still in the race against former President Donald Trump, achieved her first victory in a primary on Sunday after proclaiming herself the winner in the US capital, Washington DC, the system tends to reward the favorites and has reduced Haley's chances almost to nothing.
For Democrats, the suspense is even less, since outgoing President Joe Biden should be the party's candidate.
To understand how the system works, one must assume that in the United States, to be elected, presidential candidates must obtain a certain number of delegates, regardless of the exact number of votes.
In that sense, the Republican and Democratic primaries that are held every four years allow the election of delegates who will attend the party's national convention. They are the ones who nominate the official candidate.
The number of states that participate in Super Tuesday is not always the same and this 2024 there will be 15 states whose principle is the same: the candidate who obtains the greatest number of votes wins and takes them all. Therefore, even if you place well in second place, it may equal zero delegates.
Among those that stand out are California and Texass, and there will also be an electoral appointment in Alabama, Colorado, Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. In addition, the results of the Iowa caucus will also be made public. In addition to those states, Democratic voters abroad and in the territories of American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands will also be able to choose their candidate today.
“Super Tuesday will include Texas and California, which are the two largest states and those that contribute many delegates. Therefore, it will be a very important date, especially for the Republicans, because that is where there is greater competition. However, Trump's favoritism is such that it is likely that today the only thing he will do is confirm the trend in his favor,” explains the academic from the University of La Sabana Cristian Rojas.
The Republicans will elect 865 of the 2,429 delegates called to the Republican National Convention next July in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), that is, 35.6 percent of the total. For their part, the Democrats elect on this date 1,439 of the 3,934 delegates who will proclaim their candidate at the Democratic National Convention in August in Chicago (Illinois).
Biden and Trump accounts
Regarding the question of whether Biden can win the primaries on Super Tuesday, the answer is no.
Even if Biden wins all the delegates at stake (so far only two have escaped him in the Michigan primaries), adding his current 206 would leave him at 1,645, still 323 away from the magic figure of 1,968 given by the Democratic candidacy. The most likely thing is that in the absence of significant opposition, Biden will obtain the necessary number of delegates to be considered the winner of the primaries on March 19, when another half-dozen states have elected his delegates.
And Trump? Neither. Although the former president dominates the Republican primaries without setbacks, the presence of Nikki Haley in the race is delaying the day when the former president can claim victory.
Trump now has 244 delegates and before Super Tuesday the Republicans still have to elect another 29 in the North Dakota caucuses. Even if Trump took absolutely all the delegates – something unlikely – he would still not reach the 1,215 he needs to be declared a candidate.
Haley, who has been under pressure for weeks from a large part of the party to withdraw from the race after her successive defeats, has 43 delegates without considering her victory in Washington. However, the former governor has set today's date as the goal to demonstrate to donors and voters that she can support her candidacy in the face of the suspicion that some feel about Trump running again.
But if the former president sweeps the length and breadth of the states called to the polls, it will be very difficult for Haley to justify continuing in the race.
INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL
*With AFP and Efe
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