KArtificial intelligence, especially generative AI, has a high potential to supplement or replace jobs with cognitive activities. According to a calculation by the International Monetary Fund, 60 percent of jobs in highly developed countries are affected by AI – the forecast is that half will benefit from it and the other half will lose.
According to a new representative survey by TU Darmstadt among employees in Germany, Great Britain and the United States, people with little AI knowledge hardly see their own jobs in danger, while those surveyed with good AI knowledge are significantly more worried about their jobs.
There is much to suggest that in connection with artificial intelligence the so-called Dunning-Kruger effect present: People with low (AI) competence overestimate their own abilities and see little risk of being replaced by technology. In other words: Those who have no idea what generative AI is capable of today and in the future are less worried about their jobs, while people with strong AI knowledge are significantly more worried about their jobs.
In concrete numbers: In Germany, only 22 percent of those surveyed are concerned about their own jobs, while 65 percent see no danger. The British and Americans are not so confident: around a third of respondents here were concerned and only half in the two countries are of the opinion that AI will not affect their jobs. The new D21 Digital Index confirms the statements. “76 percent of working people assume that these changes due to digitalization will also lead to the loss of activities or entire professions by 2035. However, only a few (23 percent) believe that this could affect their own job. This ostrich effect poses challenges for business and politics: In times of a shortage of skilled workers and international competitive pressure, an awareness of the future demands of the world of work is needed in order to maintain employment opportunities and prosperity in the country. However, the proportion of those who use such further training offers financed by employers has stagnated at a low level for years (2023: 18 percent).”
If you follow the Dunning-Kruger thesis, the comparatively high self-confidence of Germans could also be due to their limited knowledge of AI. International comparisons confirm this thesis: While Americans' digital skills are ranked 9th in the world, the British are in the middle at 26th, while the Germans are only 58th out of 64 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking countries examined.
The low level of digital knowledge among Germans is also confirmed by other studies: “The development of basic digital skills in Germany shows an approach to the EU average, but at 49 percent remains behind the EU average of 54 percent. “A significant acceleration in the promotion of these skills is crucial to achieving the EU’s goal for the digital decade,” demands the EU in its current statement Status report on Europe's digital decade. However, Germans are aware of their need to catch up: one in five Germans demands that artificial intelligence be taught at school. In Great Britain and the United States, only one in ten people hold this opinion.
The fact that Germans overestimate their own AI capabilities is also reflected in their comparatively low concern about other people losing their jobs. While more than 80 percent of Americans and Brits fear many job losses, in Germany the figure is only around 70 percent.
Now the opinions of people, most of whom have little or no knowledge of AI, say little about the actually expected labor market effects. However, the participants agree on one point: they tend to only see other people's jobs as being at risk from AI, but not their own. One possible explanation is the unrealistic optimism known from medicine: people know very well about the health risks of their age group or disposition, but they systematically see the risk of illness in other people as being higher than in themselves. The situation is similar with AI: many studies expect AI's productivity potential to be around 30 percent of working time. But here too, people seem unrealistically optimistic, as in medicine. According to the motto: It won't affect me.
Professor Dr. Peter Buxman
Peter Buxmann teaches business informatics at the Technical University of Darmstadt and works as a supervisory board member, senior advisor, podcaster and founder. His research focuses on applications of artificial intelligence, the digitalization of the economy and society, and the future of digital work.
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