How likely is it that the United States will be left without Trump or Biden for the elections?

Joe Biden and Donald Trumpprobable rivals in the November elections of this year in USAwent through a stormy week marked by judicial developments that could have a high impact on the presidential campaign and their chances of reigning in the White House from 2025.

Perhaps the most relevant of all came due to the decision of a Court of Appeals in Washington, composed of three judges (two liberal and one conservative), which concluded, unanimously, that the former Republican president does not have any immunity. facing ordinary justice for the acts committed during his four years in the Oval Office.

The decision, anticipated by many, is of enormous significance, as it destroys one of the main arguments of the former president's defense in at least three of the four criminal proceedings that have been progressing against him since last year.

In particular, the one that the special prosecutor has armed him with Jack Smith for their efforts to ignore the results of the 2020 elections, prevent the peaceful transfer of power and foment a revolt that culminated in the violent takeover of the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

Trump claimed that, as a sitting president, he had absolute immunity and was answerable only to Congress, his natural judge and who acquitted him of those same charges in an impeachment trial carried out by the Senate.

Although the country's constitutionalists agreed that their reading was wrong, since no one, not even the president, could be outside the law, it was a complex question that the country's judicial authorities had never had to answer.

The response, however, was overwhelming. “We cannot accept that the office of the Presidency places its former occupants above the law forever. “Former President Trump lacks legal discretionary authority to challenge federal criminal law,” the judges said in their ruling.

Furthermore, the judges said, it is impossible to describe the measures he allegedly took as “acts of government.” trump to alter the vote count or prevent the rise of a legitimate successor elected by the majority.

“It would be a striking paradox if a president were the only official capable of defying those laws with impunity,” the appeals court wrote.

For them, the trial carried out by the Senate does not exempt it either, since it was a political procedure where the criteria are totally different from the judicial ones.
The issue, of course, is not yet completely settled, Well Trump He has until this Monday to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court of Justice, currently composed of six conservative judges (three that he himself appointed) and three liberals.
Despite this, the majority agrees that the Supreme Court will reaffirm the ruling of the Court of Appeals.

The big question now is how long it will take to reach that same conclusion. From the beginning, part of the former president's legal strategy has been to delay the proceedings against him so that they do not interfere or affect him in the electoral campaign.

Because he also knows that if he wins the elections he would have enough power to sink the proceedings against him, particularly those brought forward by Smith for the events of January 6 and the illegal extraction of classified documents from the White House.
The first trial, which was to begin in March, has already been postponed and its new date will depend on what the court decides to do. Supreme Court.

If the Court accepts the ruling of the Court of Appeals, the process would be reactivated immediately. However, if he decides to take the case, a resolution is not expected before June or July, a date by which Trump would already be the candidate nominated by the Republicans and a few months before the elections. general elections.

But on paper and, at least for now, the former president suffered a defeat. Barring a 180-degree turn by the supreme court, the way is clear for him to face justice.
For Trump, however, the week brought one of hard times and another of sand. The same Supreme Court hinted this Thursday that it plans to overturn the decision of a lower court in Colorado that allowed the exclusion of the former president from the elections in the state due to his role in the events of January 6.

According to the authorities seeking to exclude him, something other states have also attempted, The 14th Amendment to the Constitution prohibits people responsible for an insurrection from being public servants.

Although the Court has not yet ruled, it was clear in the interrogation phase that the justices, even the liberals, do not agree with the argument, since it would create a precedent under which any state could decide – for ideological reasons or preferences – who He may or may not be a candidate.

Biden's age, under magnifying glass

As in the case of Trump, President Joe Biden also had a bittersweet week.

This Thursday, special prosecutor Robert Hur published a nearly 350-page report in which he announced that he will not file criminal charges against the president for withholding classified material when he left the vice presidency in 2017.

As recalled, when the Trump scandal broke out over the extraction of documents, Biden announced that, after an exhaustive review of his files, he had found classified material and proceeded to return it to the authorities. Unlike Trump, who resisted the return, causing an FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence to recover them.

Something that the prosecutor acknowledged in his report. However, what should have translated into a victory for Biden ended up being a hard blow for the president.

Hur, explaining his decision in the text, affirms that the case had no future before a jury because Biden would be seen as a “good-natured old man with a bad memory”, but with good intentions.

The description of the prosecutor, whose task was to determine whether or not there were merits to open a process against him, fell like a bomb when it ended up feeding the narrative that is weighing most on him in this campaign: his age and capabilities for four more years in the White House.

The president, furious at the prosecutor's words, called a hasty press conference in which he harshly criticized the characterization and tried to demonstrate that he has no cognitive problems and is fully fit to carry out the position.

But, in an unfortunate verbal slip, he ended up confusing the president of Egypt with that of Mexico, creating a bigger storm than the one he had tried to calm and that is already being taken advantage of by his rivals to weaken him.
In fact, a group of Republicans in Congress asked Biden's cabinet to remove him from office.

If any lesson emerged this week, it is that both Trump and Biden, for different reasons, will continue to carry the heavy burden that has been sinking them in the campaign.

The former Republican president, according to the Court's arguments, will not be disqualified from participating in the race, but will have to face justice simultaneously. And Biden, for his part, will circumvent a perception that has just been endorsed by the prosecutor who investigated him.

SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
TIME CORRESPONDENT
WASHINGTON