80 years old | “Dictators have a growing appetite,” says long-time Russia researcher Alpo Juntunen

“Putin's and as the partners get older, their power structure might begin to decay, which could lead to a fatal loosening of the grip – and that would start a change in Russia”, concludes the Russian history researcher Alpo Juntunen.

“The course of development could take shape somewhat in the same way as Brezhnev in the final years, before the onset of perestroika.”

Juntunen has studied Russian history and the present for fifty years. Researching, traveling, teaching. He had time to work at universities and as an academy researcher, as well as at the National Defense College, most recently as a professor of Russian military policy.

Russia became familiar right away in childhood. Juntunen remembers the ruins of the war in the church village of Suomussalmi and knows the battles on his heritage farm in Hulkonniemi and Kuomanjoki.

“When I applied to become a researcher at the National Defense University, in the interview they asked about my patriotism, when I described the burning of our farm during the winter war. No additional questions were asked.”

The perception of the eastern neighbor was also enriched by the early readings Ilmari Kiannon Russia books, such as the one depicting the beginning of the 20th century Master of Moscow. “Ilmari was one of my grandfather's and father's friends, and that's why I was in his audience,” says Juntunen.

Far In his career as a researcher on Russia, Juntunen has also received criticism for his speeches. Some of his comments can be considered somewhat unrealistic, such as the assertion that in a hypothetical conflict between Russia and the West, Finland would have had reason to strive for some kind of agreement with Russia.

In Juntunen's opinion, every conceivable possibility must be considered in security strategies – with advantages and disadvantages, without censorship.

“I support it Cobble stone the idea that all options must always be presented.”

Juntunen links the beginning of Russia's new aggression to Putin's speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007.

“It practically put an end to speculation that Russia might even become a member of NATO. Soon after, there was a flare-up in Georgia, the annexation of Crimea, and finally the attack on Ukraine.”

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“The Great Russian mentality is a combination of superpower thoughts and a sense of inferiority.”

That In the spring of 2022, Ukraine repelled the Russian convoys from Kiev, which was a moment of prime importance for Juntus. Russia was not able to make a breakthrough.

“Dictators have a growing appetite, Napoleon, Hitler, Putin… After defeating Ukraine, Putin would have taken Moldova next.”

Juntunen considers Finland's swift NATO solution logical. Until February 2022, he himself had been in favor of the NATO option. “Of course, our officer corps had previously been building non-public cooperation with NATO for a long time,” he adds.

He currently assesses our cooperation with NATO to be of a suitable level. Joint combat exercises are quite necessary. NATO benefits significantly from Arctic exercises, says Juntunen. “No Portuguese soldier could have had any idea of ​​conditions like that before.”

But still that Russia. Why is it such an imperialistic and threatening neighbor from time to time?

Alpo Juntunen improves his position in the chair.

“At the core of Russia and Russians lies a constant fear of an attack from the West. That is the basic idea, and due to suspicion, it is mandatory to constantly maintain a high level of defense readiness.”

“The Great Russian mentality is a combination of superpower thoughts and a sense of inferiority.”

Picture: Vesa-Matti Wrong

• Born 1944 in Orimattila.

• Graduate 1964, Karjasilla joint school, Oulu. Master of Philosophy 1972 and PhD 1983, University of Turku. Studied Russia 1970–1971 at Leningrad University.

• History assistant and lecturer at the University of Turku 1983–1986. History's va. professor at Joensuu University 1986–1989.

• Academy project researcher 1989–1998.

• Special researcher at the National Defense University 1998–2009 and professor of Russian military policy 2009–2012.

• About 70 research works and articles.

• Research member of the Finnish Historical Society.

• Lives in Turku, married, three children, three grandchildren.

• Turns 80 on Sunday, February 11.

What would you tell your 20-year-old self?

“Follow your idea.”