Sinn Féin calls on London and Dublin to now prepare the “conversation” on an Irish unification consultation

Times are changing rapidly, and it is advisable for all actors to prepare for another scenario. Mary Lou McDonald, the president of Sinn Féin – for decades the political arm of the IRA terrorist organization – and Michelle O'Neill, the republican who has made history by occupying the chair of chief minister of Northern Ireland, have demanded, with kindly but firmly, to the Governments of Dublin and London to begin preparing the necessary “constitutional conversation” that will lead to a consultation on the unification of Ireland. Both are convinced that the referendum will be held before the end of this decade. And they both also understand that the main impetus for change must come from the Republic of Ireland. Or as they say, from the south of the island.

“It is key to plan this matter, and the Irish Government must begin preparations now,” O'Neill demanded this Thursday in London before dozens of foreign correspondents summoned to listen to the two politicians. “Let's have those conversations that we must have regarding a possible constitutional change. What is it going to translate into in terms of education and health? How should it be done to boost the growth of our economy? What are the potential benefits? If Dublin does not create that environment that allows us to invite others to join that conversation, it will have failed in its duty and responsibility,” he said.

The relevance of a political message—any communication expert knows this—is directly proportional to the importance of the person who transmits it. Sinn Féin has been calling for the unity of Ireland throughout its history. But the attendance of dozens of correspondents at Royal Overseas League, the London club where the Foreign Press Association had invited the number one and two of Irish republicanism to speak, was proof that a historic change is being brewed – or at least, that is the general perception – on the island. At the moment, Northern Ireland has a republican woman at the head of its autonomous government, something unthinkable in recent times.

Ireland must hold a general election sometime within a year, and Sinn Féin, which was already the most voted party in 2020, is aiming for another victory. The two traditional historical formations, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (two sides of the same nationalist coin, the first somewhat further to the left than the other), formed a government coalition to stop McDonald's access to power. The latest surveys, such as that of Ipsos for the Irish Times, reflect the worst level of Sinn Féin in the last three years, with a decrease in its support by six percentage points. But the survey also indicates that the two traditional parties remain stagnant, so it is easy to intuit that the upward trend continues to favor the favorite. “I think we are at the point where voters are starting to wonder what Sinn Féin will do when they come to power. They want more details,” McDonald reasoned in response to some polls that he admitted were worrying but susceptible to a turnaround.

London and the principle of consensus

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Northern Ireland Minister Chris Heaton-Harris visited Belfast last Monday to give their support to the resumption of Northern Ireland's self-governing institutions. Sunak managed to get unionists to lift a two-year block on the formation of a new self-governing Parliament and Executive by reassuring them about their link with the United Kingdom in the post-Brexit era.

That victory, however, ties the British Conservative Government hand and foot to the idea of ​​a possible referendum. Both Sunak and Heaton-Harris immediately ruled out that possibility, and called on Northern Irish politicians – especially the Republicans of Sinn Féin – to start solving the citizens' problems and put the idea of ​​unifying the island in a drawer. .

The 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to the region after decades of sectarian violence, leaves in the hands of the minister for Northern Ireland (of the British Government) the power to call a consultation “if at any time he considers it likely that “A majority of voters are willing to support Northern Ireland leaving the United Kingdom and becoming part of a united Ireland.” Voters, it is understood, on both sides of the invisible border that today divides the island.

“The Northern Ireland minister has said again that this will never happen. I think that is not a realistic position. It is the position of the ostrich that hides its head in the sand. There is going to be a change, it is evident,” McDonald said this Thursday. “The Good Friday Agreement is now 26 years old, and among its clauses is the one that establishes the holding of a possible referendum. At some point, the British Government is going to have to make clear what threshold must be met to call a consultation. Until now they have not done so, but they are going to have to provide clarity to that issue,” demanded the Sinn Féin leader.

The most recent polls (Ipsos B&A) show support for unification by 66% of the inhabitants of the Republic of Ireland, compared to just 30% of Northern Irish people. But on both sides of the border there is a large majority of citizens who believe it is necessary to hold the referendum.

“These figures have been extracted in a context in which no Government has yet blown the whistle to officially begin the conversation,” McDonald noted. “I sense that, the moment a Government in Dublin takes that step, the debate and its momentum will change.”

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