02/08/2024 – 10:02
São Paulo, 8 – Brazilian grain production in the 2023/24 harvest is expected to reach 299.8 million tons, which corresponds to a decrease of 6.3% (20.1 million tonnes less) compared to the previous season (319.81 million tons). The numbers are part of the 5th Grain Harvest Survey, by the National Supply Company (Conab), released this Thursday, 8th. When compared with the first estimate for this harvest made by Conab, the current projection presents a decrease of 17, 7 million tons. In relation to the January forecast, there was a drop of 2.2% (minus 6.62 million tons).
According to the state-owned company, the climate behavior in the main producing regions, especially for soybeans and corn first harvest, has been negatively affecting crops since planting. The delay in soybean planting will possibly impact the planting of the second corn crop, which is grown next.
Estimated soybean production is 149.4 million tons, which represents a drop of 3.4% compared to the volume obtained in the 2022/23 cycle. If the initial expectation for this season is considered, the drop reaches 7.8%, since Conab estimated a harvest of 162 million tons.
“The delay in the onset of rain in the Central-West, Southeast and Matopiba regions, followed by irregular and poorly distributed rains, with records of summer periods exceeding 20 days, in addition to high temperatures, are having a negative impact on crop performance”, said Conab in a statement.
Another important product that has an estimated lower production is corn. The drop in the total cereal harvest is expected to reach 18.2 million tons (13.8% less compared to 2022/23), resulting in a volume of 113.7 million tons.
“The cultivation of the grain’s first harvest, which represents 20.8% of total production, faced adverse situations such as high rainfall in the South of the country and low rainfall in the Center-West, accompanied by high temperatures, among other factors”, explained the state-owned company .
The second corn harvest is projected at 88.10 million tons, a reduction of 13.9% compared to last year's harvest.
A drop in bean production influenced by adverse weather is also expected. “The planting of the first legume crop is nearing completion and has been presenting negative changes due to excessive rainfall, delays in planting and reseeding.”
The sowing of the second grain harvest has already started, especially in the South region, but the general scenario is one of delay due to the harvest of the first harvest being delayed (harvest estimate of 879.5 thousand tons, drop of 8.1%) . Even so, Conab still estimates a total harvest (there are three harvests) of 2.97 million tons of beans in the country, a reduction of 2.1% compared to 2022/23 (3.04 million tons).
According to Conab, the context of El Niño, although it initially affected rice farming, has not generated losses so far in this harvest. Production is estimated at 10.8 million tons, 7.6% above the production of the previous harvest.
Cotton is also expected to increase. The estimate is that the country will set a new record for fiber production, reaching 3.3 million tons, an increase of 3.3% compared to 2022/23 (3.17 million tons). The price of the commodity and sales prospects reflected in the increase in planting area, which shows growth of 12.8% over the 2022/23 harvest.
The first estimates for winter crops point to a recovery in the wheat harvest, estimated at 10.2 million tons. Planting of the cereal begins in February in the Central-West, and will gain strength in mid-April, in Paraná, and in May, in Rio Grande do Sul, states that represent 82.7% of the country's wheat production.
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