Gershon Baskin: “For Israel, ending the war in exchange for all the hostages is equivalent to surrender”

Past and present connect these days in the story of Gershon Baskin (New York, 67 years old). Since he emigrated to Israel in 1978, he has promoted secret channels to resolve the Middle East conflict and, in the last two decades, contributed to negotiating directly with Hamas ceasefires, proof of life and exchanges of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, in particularly that of soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011. Among the more than a thousand inmates released in that exchange was the current leader of Hamas in the Strip, Yahia Sinwar, considered the mastermind of the surprise attack on October 7 and without whose green light – from where is hidden – the second exchange that Israel and Hamas are negotiating these days through Qatar, Egypt and the United States will not go ahead now. Director for the Middle East of the human rights NGO International Organization of Communities, Baskin is not involved in the current dialogue, but maintains contact with its mediators and offers the perspective of someone who has approached positions in the past and dealt with leaders of the movement for years. Islamist. “This is the strangest negotiation in the world because both parties are completely committed to the destruction of the other. There is no trust. Only confidence that you want to kill me and I want to kill you […] The ones I carried out were never in circumstances similar to the current ones: not so many hostages, not with such enormous damage in Gaza, not with such a war going on,” he says in an interview at his home in Jerusalem.

All in all, Baskin sees it as “quite likely” that a second exchange will be agreed upon, to complement the one in the last week of November, in which 105 hostages and 240 Palestinian prisoners were released. He clarifies, however, that perhaps only the first part is fulfilled. The agreement, according to various sources, would have three or four phases, with the staggered release of the 132 hostages remaining in Gaza: first, the civilians; then, the soldiers and, finally, the corpses (officially, 29, but it is suspected that many more). In exchange, Israel would release a large number – yet to be determined – of Palestinian prisoners – including important names – during a ceasefire of between six and eight weeks. The former mediator also recalls that the conversations on the proposal outlined a week ago in Paris are still moving towards establishing the general framework: “It is the details that will make the agreement possible or not,” he points out.

The main difference between the parties lies in the point of arrival, not the point of departure. Hamas insists that it be the conclusion of the war and the departure of all troops, which Israel refuses, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated this Sunday. “We will not accept any agreement and not at any price,” he said in the face of growing pressure from the families of those kidnapped and from his concentration Executive.

And that is the knot that complicates everything. “In the agreement that Hamas proposes is the belief that it will continue to govern Gaza after the war. In reality, Israel could accept all three stages and only implement one of them. Or say that you agree with the complete end of the war and then [cuando tenga en sus manos todos los rehenes] resume it. Or release prisoners and then arrest them again. But there is a feeling in the Israeli government that accepting the end of the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, even if it had no intention of complying with them, would be surrendering to Hamas and would be perceived as such locally, regionally and internationally,” he says. .

The problem with this fight is that it leaves little room for a compromise solution. “You can negotiate about times, logistics, names [de los excarcelados], who is released first, who is released later…”, but at the end of the day Israel's dilemma lies in “accepting Hamas' demands or not.” “From my 17 years of experience with Hamas, they say what they believe and believe what they say. And they do not usually make concessions on the principles that mark their relationship with Israel. “I find it difficult to imagine Hamas backing down or changing its positions when it believes it will emerge from the war maintaining control of Gaza,” he notes. Illusory? “I don't know how illusory it is. Getting them out is harder than Israel thought. And if there is one thing that was known from the beginning of the war, it is that no one in Hamas is irreplaceable; when a high command is killed [de su milicia]is immediately replaced.”

That's where the figure of Sinwar comes in. Baskin has never negotiated with him directly, but her impression from having done so indirectly is that “he is not afraid to die” and that – since he was released from prison after serving 22 years for killing two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinian collaborators – “he knows that “Israel will kill him sooner or later.” “I think the most important thing for him, more than his own life, is the release of all the prisoners,” he adds.

Baskin does not hide her position on the exchange, for which the center-left, opposed to Netanyahu, is putting more pressure; while the right emphasizes the absolute destruction of Hamas and also the reconstruction of the settlements evacuated in 2005, defended by some factions of Israeli conservatism. The activist is wearing a sweatshirt with the liberation supporters' motto – “We bring them back home now” – and the yellow ribbon that distinguishes them. “Israel stops being Israel if these hostages are sacrificed,” he argues. “Our country, our Government, failed to protect us on October 7. If the hostages are now sacrificed, why should an Israeli stay here? Why should he send his sons to the army? If that basic part of the ethos Israeli to leave no one behind; The damage to Israeli society will take generations to repair. You can end the war, withdraw the troops, bring back all the hostages and then restart it whenever you want,” he concludes.

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