Dina Mahmoud (London)
With the continuing rounds of primary elections within the Republican Party to determine the identity of the winner of its nomination ticket for the next presidential race in the United States, indications are increasing that the efforts of Republican leader Nikki Haley to resolve the battle in her favor may not be crowned with success, in the face of the fierce competition she faces from former President Donald Trump. .
Until now, Haley's campaign – her country's former representative to the United Nations – is based on saying that if Trump runs in the 2024 elections, the Republicans will lose their chance to return to the White House, claiming that the confrontation, which in this case will be a repeat of what happened in 2020, will lead to another victory. For the current Democratic President, Joe Biden, at the expense of the Republican billionaire. Although opinion polls conducted so far in the United States indicate that the majority of Americans, in general, show clear apathy regarding the possibility of repeating the scenario of the last presidential elections on the fourth of next November, and even indicate that Haley may perform better than Trump, in any event. A possible confrontation with Biden, this matter does not seem convincing to the broad base of Republicans.
The primary elections that have been held among them so far in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire have clearly shown Trump's superiority over Haley. The Republican politician of Asian origin also struggles to secure support for her, even in her home state, South Carolina, where she previously served as governor, between 2011 and 2017.
In this state, where the primary elections will be held on the twenty-fourth of this month, opinion polls show that 7 out of 10 Republican voters support Trump, while 50% or slightly more of them express their support for Haley. While 70% of these voters said that they believe that the former president can defeat Biden, only approximately 63% of those who believe that the former delegate to the United Nations is capable of doing so.
These results constitute an indication that the majority of Republicans are not convinced by the warnings that Haley has been issuing, that Trump’s acquisition of the presidential nomination ticket means the continuation of Democratic control over the White House, by repeatedly saying, “One cannot continue doing the same thing. “Expect a different result,” in a clear reference to the possibility of the former president running in the presidential elections for the second time in a row, despite his loss a few years ago.
The view of Trump's supporters in this regard is strengthened, thanks to many opinion polls conducted in swing states, which showed his superiority over the Democratic president, even if observers indicated that this may not continue during the months that separate us from the election date in early next November.
Observers attribute the difficulties Nikki Haley faces in convincing Republican voters of her right to represent them in the upcoming presidential race to changes that have occurred in the structure of the Republican Party itself. A decade ago, donors and those with visions closest to the traditional Republican establishment had the upper hand in the party, which led, for example, to John McCain, with his conservative orientation, grabbing the presidential nomination in the 2008 elections, and this was repeated with Mitt Romney four years later, despite Accounting for other candidates, more stringent in their republican tendencies.
But the loss of the two ballots, one after the other, led to the Trump model becoming the most preferred by the Republican base in 2016, which led to this man tightening his control over the party, especially since among the Republicans there are those who believe that the ongoing prosecutions against him, It is merely an attempt to obstruct his return to the Oval Office.
However, analysts point out, in statements published by the American newspaper The Washington Post on its website, that the possibility of Haley losing her chance this time, to represent the Republicans in the presidential race, may not prevent her from trying again in 2028.
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