Countdown for Putin's Black Sea Fleet: High casualties every day

Without its own ships, Ukraine is doing well on the Black Sea; Russia's fleet is gradually giving up its sails. Crimea remains contested.

Sevastopol – Dmytro Pletenchuk seems to have counted – the Ukrainian Navy spokesman did not talk to the media about the approximate size, but was precise: “Meanwhile, 25 different units have been destroyed and 15 are currently being repaired,” he said. Pletenchuk spoke of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which suffered greatly during the Ukraine War; although Pletenchuk's numbers initially remain allegations.

The sinking of the Moskva in April 2022 was the beginning of the end – an end that could come sooner than Vladimir Putin could have dreamed. The guided missile cruiser was the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Their commander is now also believed to be dead. Admiral Viktor Sokolov is said to have died at his headquarters in Sevastopol last September due to a Ukrainian missile strike. According to British intelligence, this also hits the Russian Black Sea Fleet to the core and paralyzes its defense capability – or so they write Business Insider.

Putin's fantasy: The Black Sea Fleet claims control over the Black Sea

The smallest of the four Russian fleets has now taken a huge hit: With their attacks against the Russian navy, the defenders from Ukraine not only want to destroy material and weaken the operational capability of the Black Sea Fleet, but also to overthrow the system of Russian President Vladimir Putin: Crimea was already occupied by Russia in 2014 and forms the bridgehead for Putin's fantasies of integrating Ukraine into the Russian Federation – and also for his plans to once again emerge internationally as a naval power.

The Black Sea Fleet claims control over the Black Sea, which is almost half a million square kilometers in size. For centuries, Russia has pursued an interest in ice-free access to the vital sea routes around Europe that is as warm as possible all year round in the Black Sea. Such access should underpin Russia's claim as a naval power, writes frigate captain Göran Swistek for the think tank Foundation Science and Politics. According to German author and sea captain Axel Stephenson, the Russian Navy would actually need twice as much material in the Black Sea to meet this requirement.

Up to 35 of these ships in this fleet posed a “real threat” to Ukraine, Pletenchuk said, as they provided Russia with long-range strike capability and enabled Russian operations around the annexed Crimean peninsula and in southern Ukraine. At the end of last year, the first information emerged that the Black Sea Fleet would be strengthened by smaller rocket ships, such as marineforum.online reported because Turkey is closing the Black Sea to ships of the warring parties. Therefore, only smaller boats built locally or transported on inland waterways can enter the Black Sea Fleet – such as the small rocket ships being built near Kazan on the Volga.

Putin's reality: His high-value units must be out of the firing line

At the latest after Ukraine's second attack on Sevastopol using drones, Russia pulled the high-value units – the frigates Admiral Essen and the Makarov, three submarines and five landing ships – out of the line of fire and mostly relocated them to Novorossiysk marineforum.online. Satellite images show increasingly deserted port areas in the Crimean metropolis.

Furthermore, Russia apparently uses material to: marineforum.online reports images showing a Tor-M2KM short-range tactical anti-aircraft missile system strapped to the flight deck of a Russian Vasily Bykov-class corvette. Russia wants to keep open the possibility of landing Russian forces from sea and continue to use the Black Sea as an operating and launching area for Russian cruise missiles. The gate system used weighs around 15 tons and is operated by two men. It consists of a module including a radar and fire unit and can be operated independently of the ship's power supply and operations center. marineforum.online: “What was striking in the images was that the module was in the dark olive tone of the land forces and was not adapted to the maritime environment.”

Russia is apparently improvising, and the losses are clearly having an impact. At the end of December, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps claimed that Russia had lost 20 percent of its Black Sea fleet in the past four months. It is known that Ukraine has at least seriously damaged a Russian submarine at its shipyard in Sevastopol, as well as several Russian landing ships such as the Minsk, the Saratov and the Olenegorsky Gornyak. Earlier this month, Ukraine said its military intelligence had destroyed a missile-armed Russian corvette, the Ivanovets, with a series of naval drones. Ukraine is strictly pursuing this path.

Putin's threat: Ukraine is planning a campaign with autonomous submarines

They are called Fury, Orca or Kronos and are supposed to revolutionize underwater warfare. After the successful use of the Magura 5 drone, Ukraine is planning a campa
ign of autonomous submarines against Vladimir Putin's Black Sea fleet and wants to drive Russia out of Crimea. There is now a stealth submarine made by Ukrainian engineers. And the aircraft manufacturer Boeing has now delivered five unmanned submarines to the US Navy; they could also be interesting for Ukraine; However, they are increasingly relying on their own construction in order to emancipate themselves from their previous supporters.

But Ukraine is also arming itself on water: In addition to the delivery of tanks and missiles, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced in December that two Royal Navy minehunters would be handed over to the Ukrainian Navy, although the ships would be due to limited access to the Black Sea At the end of the war they could not enter Ukrainian ports – Turkey also refused to allow them to enter the Black Sea.