American researchers say, based on opinion polls, that Republican perception on the issue could help Joe Biden to be re-elected
The opinion of Republicans on climate change tends to be a decisive factor in the outcome of the 2024 US elections, just as it may have triggered the defeat of former president Donald Trump in the last election, in 2020. This is the conclusion of the study led by University of Colorado (United States) political scientist Mathew Burgess. Here's the completein English (PDF – 4 MB).
The study was produced based on data from the Voter Study Group (Elector Study Group, its acronym in English), used to estimate the effect of this type of opinion on voter behavior, in addition to other specific methodologies and research carried out from 2016 to 2020.
It was possible to carry out projections that show a significant effect of this type of positioning at the time of voting. The conclusion is that the Republicans (former President Donald Trump's party) could have obtained an advantage of up to 3% in the popular vote in 2020, which could have been enough to win the White House, if they had been less skeptical about the theme.
Matthew Burgess says this pattern could repeat itself in this year's election, which could help President Joe Biden's re-election. According to French market research company Ipsosthe North American population has more confidence in the Republican Party to find economic solutions and leaves issues of education, armed violence and health to the Democratic Party.
While the issue of climate change strongly predicts who people voted for in 2020, overall it is not the No. 1 concern among voters. Less than 5% of adults classify climate change this way. More immediate issues include those that affect people's everyday lives, such as the economy, health, education and crime.
ELECTIONS CALENDAR
The presidential elections in the United States will be held on November 5, 2024. Before that, candidates must face their party colleagues in the primary elections so that those chosen can enter the official dispute for the Executive.
Voting takes place in the States. Read the schedule and key dates for the US elections below:
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