The Taiwanese elections on Saturday were “a choice between war and peace,” according to both Beijing and losing opposition candidate Hou Yu-ih. Has Taiwan opted for war with the new president Lai Ching-te (1959)? During the campaign, Lai himself emphasized the continuity with the previous eight years under the leadership of his Democratic-Progressive Party (DPP). He himself served the last four of these as vice president under Tsai Ing-wen, during whose government relations with China remained difficult, but never escalated into violence. In a much-viewed campaign video Tsai handed her car keys to Lai, who is sitting in the passenger seat. The route then takes “Straight on the Road of Democracy”, with Lai at the wheel and his new Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim at his side.
Tsai refused to formally declare the island's independence, an act she said is unnecessary because Taiwan has long been independent in practice, and which would provoke a fierce response from Beijing. The balancing act was only partially successful: after her election in 2016, China cut off all formal communication with Taiwan, which has not yet been restored.
It will not be Lai's fault, he himself emphasized during his campaign. When he was asked in a meeting with students who he would most like to have dinner with, he mentioned Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “I would advise him to relax a bit and not put so much pressure on people.”
It has not stopped Beijing from calling Lai a “troublemaker” and “warmonger.” Two days before the election, China's Taiwan Affairs Office warned that a victory by Lai would lead to “the extreme danger of confrontation and conflict.”
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Poor single-parent family
Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, grew up with five brothers and sisters in northern Taiwan, where his father died in a mining disaster when he was two years old. His mother worked small jobs to raise the money to keep the one-parent family running. It did not stop him from studying medicine, including at Harvard, and becoming a doctor. Growing up in poverty has purified him, he claimed an interview of Time Magazine: “It made me work harder at everything I did. It gave me perseverance.”
Although Lai was already active for the DPP at the time, the crisis in 1996 – China held missile tests in the Taiwan Strait just before the first direct presidential elections – made him definitively opt for a political career: “As a doctor I could only help one person at a time.” , in public service much more.” He was elected mayor of Tainan and served in various roles in the DPP and in public administration, as party chairman, prime minister and vice president.
Yet he still often relies on his medical experience. He also has a treatment plan for his patient 'democracy', he wrote this summer in the Wall Street Journalbased on, among other things, military deterrence and reduction of economic dependence on China, but also “pragmatism” in the relationship with its big neighbor.
Lai's election is unlikely to soften China's stance. More credit can be given to him in tackling domestic issues, such as the cost of living and the housing shortage, that concern many voters. A dinner with Xi is probably not in the cards after all.
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