G20, Brazil's presidency completes the Brics “troika” with India and South Africa
The turn of the presidency experiences a three-year period that points completely to the South; after India, the lead now passes to Brazil which, in turn, will hand over the scepter to South Africa next year. The start of the G20 preliminary meetings is now a matter of days and this unusual convergence of neighboring countries – for intentions, ideals and needs – not by chance, founders of the Brics, represents an unprecedented opportunity to promote the interests of the South of the world.
At the same time, also the China, thus sees the possibility of promoting its three initiatives served on a silver platter: Global Security Initiative (GSI), Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). But nothing has been decided yet, the pressure of Chinese influence could be strengthened by the expansion of the group that took place in Johannesburg last August, where it was announced the expansion of the group's membership, which from January 1, 2024 also includes Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (the Argentina of the newly elected president Milei has instead renounced). With the new entries, in fact, it is increased representation from the African continent and the Middle East, and its presence in Latin America has expanded, to the detriment of Asia.
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From a formal point of view, recalls Matteo Dian on Ispi, le opportunities for the rotating presidency are numerous: hosts the annual summit; has the possibility of defining the priorities on the agenda of the summit and ministerial summits; has a leading and coordinating role in discussions; has the possibility of establishing specific working groups dedicated to topics of particular relevance.
The power of the presidency, however, remains of direction and agenda, as the G20 maintains a structure based on consensus and unanimity. Furthermore, the G20 declarations have indicative value but are not legally binding. Among the group's other priorities stand out the attempt to erode the role of the dollar as the reference currency of the international monetary system, and to reduce the American and Western ability to exercise economic coercion through sanctions.
As for Chinese aims, for Xi Jinping BRICS and G20 are two very important cornerstones for promoting his project of international order. Beijing, in fact, aspires to support from the BRICS both for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and for the three new initiatives: GSI, GDI, GCI. To date, the BRICS have not even covertly “sponsored” the BRI, above all due to the opposition of India and Russia. The enlargement of the BRICS, however, could lead to more explicit support for the three new “global initiatives”.
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The G20 is a much more heterogeneous and plural context – continues Dian – in which Western states and the allies of the United States still have a decisive role. In this case China's goal is to consolidate legitimacy and recognition of China's status as a great power with equal status to that of the United States, as well as being a political and ideological point of reference for all countries that do not recognize themselves in the American-led international order.
Since the summit held in New Delhi last 9-10 September, Brazil has announced its priorities for the rotating presidency in 2024 swill include social inclusion, the fight against hunger, the energy transition, support for development and reforms of the international governance system. This is why President Lula promoted the creation of two task forces, the “Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty” and the “Global Mobilization against Climate Change”.
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While theLula's agenda seems strongly aligned with the proposals of the BRICS and China, Brazilian foreign policy will most likely be careful to maintain one position of “active non-alignment,” writes Dain. This approach provides for a position of neutrality on issues at the heart of geopolitical competition between the United States (and the West) on the one hand and China and Russia on the other.
Brasilia has, in fact, maintained a position of neutrality regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In the 2025 the rotating presidency of the G20 will pass to South Africa, offering the country another opportunity to influence the international governance agenda. The President Ramaphosa he could probably also take advantage of the rotating presidency to put forward some significant proposals: the possibility of making the membership of the African Union permanent (as for the EU) and the promotion of a new framework for the restructuring of external debtor.
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