It is amidst a context of tension, which involved the presence of a spy balloon in its airspace and the intensification of Chinese military pressure near its border, that Taiwan is holding its presidential and legislative elections that will define the new head of state of Taiwan. island for the next four years.
The elections, which are already underway in Taiwan, where it is already Saturday (13), could also define a new vision for the Asian country's foreign policy. The Taiwanese population must choose between continuing the current government, which has adopted a tougher policy towards rapprochement with Beijing, or changing the country's command, choosing one of the opposition candidates, who are more in favor of talking to the mainland communist regime. .
China, which considers Taiwan a “rebellious province” and wants to annex the small country to its already huge territory, is following the local elections with anxiety. With 35% of voting intentions in the latest polls, William Lai Ching-te, 64 years old, current vice-president of Taiwan and member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is the favorite in the dispute.
The vice president has on several occasions adopted a strong speech against the influence and desire of the Beijing regime to annex his country. In fact, China considers Lai and the DPP to be political “separatists” and told voters that “voting for the party is similar to voting for war” in the Taiwan Strait.
Despite his well-known stance, Lai did not speak much about independence throughout the political campaign. During his rallies and interviews, the candidate promised to maintain peace in the region and resume “dialogue” with the Chinese, following the “path” outlined by the current president, Tsai Ing-wen. His running mate is Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's representative in the USA and who is very popular among young Taiwanese.
The opposition, made up of the Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), will each have their own candidate. The parties did not reach an agreement to launch a single candidate, due to disagreement on certain points.
The TPP, whose presidential candidate is Ko Wen-je, 64, former mayor of Taiwan's capital, Taipei, wants to maintain the island's dialogue with China and defends policies to help his country's youth. His running mate is Cynthia Wu, daughter of a renowned local businessman. The KMT, which is the second largest party in the Taiwanese Parliament, has as its presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, 66, who “opposes Taiwan's independence” and is named by local media as Lai's main opponent in these elections. .
Hou adopts a friendlier line towards Beijing and argues that increased diplomatic and commercial exchanges with mainland Chinese help ensure peace and status quo of the island. Despite this, he said he will strengthen national defense and allow everyone to “live in peace” in Taiwan. His running mate, Jaw Shaw-Kong, is the son of Chinese parents and has been described as “a unification fundamentalist”.
Voting points have been open in the country since 8am local time (9pm this Friday [12] Brasília time) and will be open until 4pm in the afternoon (5am on Saturday [13] Brasília time). Voters will vote on paper ballots that will be counted by hand.
According to information from Al Jazeera, in the process, people will vote three times: the first to select the president and vice president, the second to choose their local parliamentarian, and the third to select their favorite “party list” – a list of general parliamentarians who receive seats based on their party's vote share. This list serves as a measure of a party's popularity and reputation.
Taiwan's Parliament is made up of 113 deputies elected for four-year terms. Of these, 73 are directly elected by geographic constituencies, ensuring that each region of Taiwan has its voice in the house. Furthermore, 34 deputies are chosen through party lists, the system that allows political parties to have representation proportional to their popularity across the country. The remaining seats, six, are reserved for representatives of the island's indigenous peoples.
Authorities expect more than 19 million people to participate in the election, the results should be out by the end of voting day. Whoever wins the elections will take office on May 20th.
The election in Taiwan has attracted international attention, especially from the United States, which maintains unofficial ties with the island and is committed by law to providing the country with the means to defend itself. President Joe Biden has already promised that he would send US military forces to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
In his New Year's speech, dictator Xi Jinping stated that the reunification of mainland China with Taiwan is “inevitable.”
“All Chinese on both sides must be bound by a common sense of purpose,” said the leader of the communist regime.
According to information from the American media, in December, Xi told Biden that he wanted to reunify Taiwan “preferably peacefully”. In recent days, the Taiwanese government accused Beijing of sending spy balloons to the island and launching a satellite over its airspace. .
Over the past year, Taiwanese intelligence has accused the Chinese regime of trying to interfere in the local elections now being held in a variety of ways. Taipei claims that Beijing intimidated members of the country's political groups who passed through its territory, released several false news reports about candidates and intensified its military activities, including firing rockets near the island's coast.
This week, dozens of U.S. lawmakers signed a resolution praising democracy in Taiwan and reaffirming their commitment to supporting the island “with all elements of U.S. power.” Taiwan is an important trade and technology partner for the US, especially in the semiconductor sector, which is vital to several industries. The country is also a strategic point of support for the Americans in the region, which could be threatened if China's influence and military presence expands.
“Because of Taiwan's contested status and the uncertainty it brings not only to the region but to the world as well, everyone is really curious as to who will be the new person responsible for 'steering the ship,' so to speak, because this will have many implications not only for security, but also for risk and economic potential,” he told Al Jazeera Lev Nachman, an expert on Taiwanese politics and assistant professor at National Taipei Chengchi University.
In turn, the American media has highlighted the critical importance of the election results for the United States.
“The election result will be significant for the US as Taiwan […] it is an important part of American foreign policy. Elbridge Colby, author of the U.S. Department of Defense's 2018 National Security Strategy, even argues that Taiwan is America's strategic fulcrum,” points out an article written by the economics editor of the City JournalJordan McGillis.
“What will it mean for Washington if Hou Yu-ih wins? On the one hand, Hou's move could, as he promises, ease tensions and reduce the risk of a war involving American forces. On the other hand, it could increase Despite Beijing's appetite for influence, a closer cross-Straits tie between Taiwan and China could even gradually tilt the balance of power in the region against the U.S. If Taiwan ever joins China's camp, Colby believes that China's global hegemony will America – and the security and eco
nomic benefits it delivers to the American people – would be extinguished,” notes McGillis.
An analysis carried out by the Bloomberg agency showed that a possible conflict involving Taiwan would have massive economic consequences not only for the island, but also for the global economy, due to the interconnection and dependence that the world has on the country.
Bloomberg showed that Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could suffer significantly, with estimates of a 40% reduction. China and the US would also experience substantial losses in GDP.
Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at Crisis Group, highlighted in her remarks to The Japan Times
that all three main candidates in the Taiwan election “are committed to maintaining the status quo Of region”. According to her, each candidate claims to be the “most qualified” to ensure the security and stability of Taiwan.
“In an ideal world, Taiwan's national elections would have nothing to do with China or the United States. They would simply be an opportunity for the autonomous island's 24 million people to choose the politicians and policies that best meet their aspirations.” , wrote Ben Bland, in an article for think tank
Chatham House.
“While China may or may not like the outcome, by choosing their own leaders in a fair and transparent contest, the Taiwanese people are sending a strong message about the kind of world they want to live in,” the author points out.
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