El Niño: what is this phenomenon, how does it affect the climate, consequences in 2024

This year could be the hottest on Earth in recorded history. Scientists attribute this to the El Niño phenomenon, which is associated with fluctuations in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The situation with rising temperatures on the planet will be aggravated by human activity, experts say.

El Niño influenced temperatures in 2023

Scientists reported that if in 2023 the average temperature on the planet was approximately 1.4 degrees Celsius higher compared to the same indicator in the pre-industrial era, then, according to preliminary estimates, this year it will increase by 1.3-1.6 degrees .

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration senior scientist Michael McPhaden explained that there is a lag between warming water in the Pacific Ocean and rising surface temperatures on the planet, so the second year of El Niño is often warmer than the first.

“Imagine a pot of water on the stove. If you pour cold water into it, you will only feel a slight change in temperature. This is what happens during La Niña, when cold water rises from the deep ocean to the surface. If you stop pouring cold water, the water in the pan will heat up much faster, this phenomenon is called El Niño,” explained the scientist who works on ocean modeling for a non-profit organization [C]Worthy, Ulla Hide. She added that the longer this phenomenon lasts, the warmer the Pacific Ocean and the air above it become.

Scientists warn of droughts, floods and coral bleaching

Scientists interviewed by Bloomberg say that the anomalies recorded in 2023 indicate the importance of studying temperatures in 2024. “There are already some guesses about what the heat will bring this year,” the report says.

Hide believes that as the warmest part of the Pacific Ocean shifts eastward, drought will likely come to places that previously had high rainfall, and vice versa. The UN is already concerned about food insecurity this year due to drought in East Asia, South Africa and Central America. Additionally, El Niño brings dry weather to the Amazon. The phenomenon could cause more rainfall in southeastern Brazil and neighboring Uruguay. McPhaden noted that the southern United States is likely to experience wetter and cooler weather than usual this year.

Experts also believe that the number of forest fires may increase due to El Niño; there is a particular risk in Alaska. Unexpected consequences await Europe as well – severe storms may occur there.

Scientists warn that global warming oceans could lead to widespread coral bleaching. Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasts at the UK Met Office, believes this could happen in the coming months. It is noted that due to a similar phenomenon in 2016, the largest coral reef in the world, the Great Barrier Reef, was severely damaged.