Why the European elections could ruin the plans

Adopting and implementing the climate target for 2040 will be the task of the next EU Parliament. And that should work differently than the current one.

The adoption of the numerous Green Deal laws in the European Parliament was made possible by a comfortable majority of those parties that seriously wanted to make a difference in climate policy. The EPP, Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens were rarely in complete agreement. Compromises were usually hard-won and not accepted by everyone, but they were possible. However, this fundamental consensus began to crack last year when the EPP vehemently fought new nature conservation laws and found the majority in favor of them to the right.

In 2024 it will not be any easier to organize majorities for more climate protection. The right-wing side of Parliament is expected to grow in the European elections in June. The Von der Leyen coalition of EPP, S&D and Renew could still retain a slim majority, but it would need support from other groups if there were just a few dissenters from its own ranks.

2040 goal: Parliament initially powerless

This could particularly have an impact on the EU climate target for 2040. On February 6th, the EU Commission plans to announce its proposal for a new CO₂ reduction target – including an impact assessment. The EU Climate Advisory Council recommended 90 to 95 percent compared to 1990 levels. According to the announcements by Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, the target will most likely be set at 90 percent. However, it is only the so-called “communication” of the numerical target. Although it is binding for the next Commission, it is not yet a legislative proposal.

The current parliament does not yet have a say and can only pass a non-legally binding resolution. The Commission's legislative proposal to implement the set target is expected to follow under the new Commission towards the end of the year. This means that only the new EU Parliament can come up with its own negotiating position.

Peter Liese, climate policy spokesman for the EPP, has already indicated that his group could also imagine a lower target than 90 percent. It remains to be seen whether this is an election tactic to avoid committing too early or whether he is already trying to push the target down. But one thing is clear: it boils down to confrontation. The Greens in the EP would rather set the target at the upper end of the climate advisory board's recommendations, at 95 percent.

CO₂ management strategy also coming in February

Which goal the individual factions want to commit to also depends directly on how many greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided through CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). Together with the communication for the 2040 climate target, the Commission is presenting its CO₂ management strategy. This defines the role of CCS for the EU's future climate goals in more detail.

Greens and Social Democrats only want to allow CCS in a narrowly defined area – in sectors that cannot be decarbonized or can only be decarbonized with great difficulty without CCS. In the electricity sector in particular, they want investments to flow into renewables and electrification instead. The EPP is promoting the widespread use of CCS, far beyond the so-called “hard to abate” sectors, in order to protect a larger number of economic sectors from high transformation costs.

She cites the repo
rts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which describes CCS as a necessity to achieve climate goals. However, the IPCC also says that CCS must be used as a priority where other decarbonization options are not sufficient.

This creates a dilemma: The Greens and Social Democrats strictly reject a high individual target for CCS, but it could persuade the EPP to agree to a higher CO₂ reduction target. A more right-wing EU Parliament could exacerbate this dilemma if compromises from both camps are no longer needed to find a majority.

The ball is already in the states’ court

Unlike the Parliament, which can only seriously address the 2040 target after the election, the member states already have the opportunity to anticipate the decision-making process. The Danish government has already moved forward and has committed itself to a 90 percent target. Other countries could soon follow. The new Belgian Council Presidency could also put the issue on the agenda at the Environment Council in March in order to gauge the mood for the next EU climate target.

The summit of EU heads of state and government at the end of June, at which the Council's Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 will be set, could take a further step. In the energy part of the long-term strategy paper, the Council could already agree on a long-term greenhouse gas reduction path, including a target for 2040. This may also be in anticipation of an EU Parliament that is further to the right and more negative towards climate policy. Because the meeting takes place shortly after the election. At this point it is the responsibility of Council President Charles Michel to put the issue on the agenda.

Linda Kalcher, director of the Brussels think tank Strategic Perspectives, also sees an opportunity for the current parliamentary groups to intervene in the decision-making process of the next parliament before the election. To do this, however, they would have to set a target for 2040 now: “If the parties write a number in their election programs for the European elections, then this will also apply to the members of the next parliament,” says Kalcher.