In 2024 billions of people will vote under the shadow of misinformation

During the year 2024, the electoral calendar will be intense. Around 40 national elections are held. Among them, some as decisive for the international scene as those in the United States, in November, or those in India, the most populated country in the world. But it will also be Taiwan's turn, a key player in the tensions between China and the United States; to Indonesia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Africa, Algeria, Mali, the Dominican Republic, Uruguay and many others. Bloomberg Economics estimates that these processes will affect 41% of the global population and that their territories represent 42% of the world's GDP.

The results will influence the lives of billions of people. And to this we must add regional elections of different significance. There will be in Turkey, Ireland, in some states of Germany or in Spain, where voting will take place in Galicia and the Basque Country, as well as in the EU, to elect a new European Parliament. Taking as reference a list published on Wikipediathe number of electoral processes would rise to more than 100 throughout 2024.

Given this concentration of elections, different specialized entities warn of the risk posed by misinformation. In a report with recommendations to protect democratic health, the think tank American Center for American Progress qualifies the year 2024 as “high risk” and points out the need for platforms on-line dedicate the necessary human and technical resources to deal with problems during electoral processes. Geopolitical consulting firm Oxford Analytica also has published a report in which he warns of the risk that misinformation presents in the 2024 elections.

One of the effects of misinformation that experts monitor is distrust in the electoral process itself. “Lately, in the various elections in the United States, we have seen many false and misleading claims that take advantage of errors or confusions surrounding the voting processes, even though these elements have explanations that do not indicate the existence of fraud,” says Sam Howard, political specialist of the NewsGuard platform, which monitors disinformation and offers tools to combat it. His colleague Chiara Vercellone, an analyst at the same organization, expands on this observation: “I would say that the narratives that we have seen spread in the United States are also very common in other countries when there are elections.”

The Brookings Institution, other think tank from the United States, published an article this year in which he argues that misinformation erodes trust in democracy. However, it could go further. “Until recently the biggest impact of misinformation was simply the crisis of institutional trust. But now a part of society is so saturated that it decides to stop consuming information,” says Carme Colomina, researcher in global politics and disinformation at the CIDOB study center. And what are the consequences? “If you disconnect from current events, your vote is less informed. Also, to what extent do you feel mobilized?” And so the researcher wonders if this can lead to a political disconnection.

The crisis of confidence in the system materializes in different ways depending on the scenarios. Silvia Majó-Vázquez, researcher at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford, highlights that in the next European elections the debate on the very existence of the EU will be accentuated: “I believe that the European elections will once again revolve around the need to have this supranational organization. It is the eternal debate, which became more acute with Brexit and has returned to the agenda of several countries, as a result of the entry into national politics of far-right parties.”

This symptom is related to another of the main components – cause and consequence – of misinformation: the tendency to extremes. “In India we see how polarization is fueled by the government itself. [El actual primer ministro] Narendra Modi has a very divisive speech. His supporters use disinformation campaigns to spread rumors, to criminalize the Muslim population,” says Colomina.

Majó-Vázquez agrees with this vision. “There is a lot of misinformation that comes from the elites. We have seen it in the United States, with very clear misinformation regarding the validity of the electoral results. As a result of political polarization, there is a game in which disseminating information that is not correct is valid,” and the researcher adds that this trend is increasingly pronounced. In reference, a report from the entity to which it belongs maintains that the proportion of people worried about not knowing what is a lie and what is true on the Internet amounts to 56%.

The entry into play of AI

Artificial intelligence can add confusion to the scenario. In Bangladesh, whose elections are in January, the pre-campaign has been peppered with AI-generated misinformation. “It is the first electoral cycle where we will see the effects of artificial intelligence on campaigns,” highlights Colomina. “In previous elections the impact of misinformation was clearly seen. But now we are at a much higher level of sophistication.” The CIDOB researcher refers to the attractiveness of the content generated with the new wave of generative AI, which is also available to anyone.

NewsGuard is cautious. They have not yet detected a significant impact of AI on misinformation, although they admit this may change and they monitor it closely. “We have crawled and identified what we call AI-generated news pages. We have identified more than 600 websites of this type that apparently operate with little or no human supervision,” Howard reveals.

During 2023, artificial intelligence has already been used to tarnish electoral campaigns. In the Chicago mayoral elections it circulated on the networks a video with a candidate's photograph and a spoken message. It seemed like his voice in favor of police violence, with the consequent damage to his public image. Another notorious deepfake took place two days before the elections in Slovakia. An audio was published with the voices of the leader of the Slovak Progressive Party, Michal Šimečka, and that of a journalist. The two were debating how to rig the vote. Obviously, everything was generated wi
th AI.

In the recent Argentine campaign there was also content generated with artificial intelligence. It went viral a video with apocalyptic overtones that established Sergio Massa as savior. On platform a communist leader, but with a raised hand salutewhile for him the image of a good-natured lion that embraces the Argentine nation.

Colomina places emphasis on this type of actions. “You are selling a certain image. This may seem innocuous, but it all feeds perceptions.” Although she introduces an important nuance: “There is a very fine line between what is creative license and what is disinformation. Nor can we label everything as harmful.”

Living with misinformation

The main online communication platforms are the channels used to circulate misinformation. But they are not the same throughout the world. “The medium through which these narratives are spread depends a lot on the population and the type of platforms they use,” explains NewsGuard's Vercellone. “In the United States, X or the Meta platforms are used, while in Spanish-speaking countries the dissemination comes through WhatsApp and other messaging services,” he adds.

Regarding platforms, there is another important difference between regions. Their moderation teams, including those temporarily set up for electoral processes, are not proportional to the countries' needs. Rather, they respond to the legislative pressure that weighs on each territory. “In the global south, platforms have not invested as heavily in moderation and automatic identification of quality content. This means that an equal or greater volume of misinformation can be expected in these areas,” underlines Majó-Vázquez.

To stop these misleading narratives, users are recommended to know the original source of the information and reflect before sharing it. “We have to assume that misinformation is part of this new reality. What is at stake in the 2024 elections is the quality of democratic systems, which are increasingly questioned. This 2024 we have to see if it will be a moment of resistance or it will be a new blow,” says Colomina.

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