In December, the reduction was 1.4%; In the year, the drop in Icec (Businessman Confidence index) was 13.2%
Traders' confidence recorded its 4th consecutive drop in December. In the last month of the year, the index reduced 1.4% compared to November, reaching 108.9 points. The data comes from a survey carried out by CNC (National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism).
Despite the drop, discounting seasonal effects, the result remains in a satisfactory zone. However, according to the confederation, the sequence of falls raises concerns regarding the prospects for the sector in 2024.
According to the chief economist from the CNC, Felipe Tavares, the persistence of the falls suggests that the threshold of 100 points, which represents the inflection for dissatisfaction, can be broken in May of 2024.
In a long-term analysis, the result compared to December 2022 shows a more significant drop: in 1 year, the Icec (Commerce Business Confidence Index) fell 13.2%.
“The downward trajectory we observed throughout the year can be attributedfrom the to various uncertainties, such as concerns about possible increases from the tax burden after approval from the tax reform and signs of a challenging economic environment in 2024”says the president from the CNC, José Roberto Tadros.
BUSINESSMEN'S PERCEPTION
The main factor that caused the Icec to reduce was the perception of businesspeople about the current conditions of the economy, which decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous month.
According to the CNC survey, 6 in 10 entrepreneurs noticed a worsening in sales performance in December – it was the highest number since June 2021. One of the significant aspects for this negative perception was the result “disappointing” of Black Friday 2023, according to the Confederation.
“The slowdown in the growth of expanded trade, as presented in the results from the IBGE Monthly Trade Survey [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística] for August, September and October, contributes for this more moderate perspective from the economic expectations at Icec”explains Tavares.
The survey also assessed the perception in relation to the commerce sector. The results show that retailers reduced in greater degree their intention to invest in the company itself, presenting a fall of 1.4% in December.
The intention to hire employees decreased by 2.3% in the month and 11% in compared to December 2022 and investing fell 1.7% in the month and 12.9% in the year.
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