A pause in the fighting would suit the president's plans, and that's why the Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian positions fiercely, writes HS's foreign correspondent Pekka Hakala.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has felt the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine through diplomatic channels, the newspaper says The New York Times. According to the newspaper's Russian and American sources, the arbitrators have communicated Putin's desire for a cease-fire between September and October.
“He is really ready to stop at the current positions,” a Russian source who previously held a high official position tells the newspaper.
“He refuses to back down even a meter.”
Cease-fire means a pause during which both parties feverishly prepare for the next dawn. In the end, the model of the Korean peninsula is also possible, where the border between Russia and Ukraine would remain for decades exactly where it was when the cease-fire agreement was created.
A break would serve Putin's interests regardless of whether he intends to settle for Crimea and parts of the four Ukrainian provinces he has conquered, or to subvert an independent Ukraine entirely.
A pause would serve Russia's interests, because continuing, let alone increasing, Western arms aid is laborious and it will take years to accept Ukraine as a NATO member. Russia is able to bring weapons and troops to the front faster.
Russian the preparation for a possible cease-fire can be seen in the acceleration of mobbing on the front. Christmas Eve morning of the Ukrainian General Staff situation overview on Friday, Russia carried out 81 ground force attacks, 34 air attacks, 11 missile strikes and 62 rocket launcher attacks on the long front line.
The fiercest Russian attack was again on the Avdijivka block near the city of Donetsk, where Russia is trying to encircle the city of Avdijivka, which was born on the side of Ukraine's largest coke factory.
Avdijivka is the Debaltseve of this winter war. It, on the other hand, is a small town in the Russian-occupied Ukraine, east of the front town of Bahmut. Russia seized Debaltseve in February 2015 after Putin had already accepted the Minsk II ceasefire agreement.
Russia would correct the so-called “Minsk contact line” in Debaltseve and the same correction of the front line is underway in Avdijivka. Economic magazine Forbes according to published intelligence, this rectification operation has already claimed the lives of 13,000 Russian soldiers.
Frontline achievements however, it is more important for Russia to suppress the Ukrainians' will to defend themselves.
So it's a real miracle if Russia doesn't bomb the biggest Ukrainian cities as much as it can during the Christmas holidays. This year, Ukraine will officially celebrate Christmas on December 25 for the first time, and Russia will stick to the old calendar of its church calendar.
According to reports, the morale of the tired fighters on the Ukrainian front is low. However, it is hard to find a single person in Ukraine who thinks a ceasefire would be a good idea.
Putin, on the other hand, seems to be in a ceasefire to get ready even for some kind of concessions. The most important of them is that he does not demand, as in the past, access to negotiations with the United States, over Ukraine's head. Or at least that's what it refers to Grigori Yavlinsky Story told to The New York Times.
Javlinski is Putin's peer from St. Petersburg, born in Lviv, western Ukraine. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the economist founded the liberal party Jabloko and sat in the parliament until 2003. Nowadays, he is a St. Petersburg city councilor and opposes the war.
Javlinski's opinions get you to the castle in Russia these days. Instead, Javlinski received an invitation to the Kremlin at the end of October. True to his goals, Putin waited for the guest in the hall past midnight, but in the end the men discussed Ukraine for an hour and a half.
“At least he's willing to consider a ceasefire,” Javlinski told The New York Times.
He said that he is ready to be Russia's chief negotiator if necessary.
“The fact that he agreed to talk to me for so long speaks for itself,” Javlinski continued.
Putin's the primary short-term goal is mid-March, when the presidential elections will be held in Russia. The theater designated as an election is an integral part of the dictatorship that Putin has created, and a ceasefire would be good for him. If not otherwise, then in the name of nationalism.
After the elections, it may well be the turn of a new “partial movement”. Therefore, the president of Ukraine to Volodymyr Zelensky the chancellery does not pay attention to Putin's eavesdropping. Putin knows this, and that's why he put his press chief Dmitry Peskov to assure on Christmas Eve that Russia will not give up any of its goals in Ukraine.
So, if someone other than Putin is in favor of a ceasefire, it's going to be a long wait. It could only be shortened by a Russian breakthrough at the front. There is no such thing currently visible.
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