Napoleon, the Ridley Scott film, is also a box office hit in kyiv. One scene in particular, the image of Moscow devoured by flames, has been especially celebrated by the public and commented on on social networks. The film also has other aspects that show – with Hollywood drama – the harshest reality of a war in Eastern Europe: winter, whether two centuries ago in Austerlitz or now in Bakhmut, is the worst enemy of an army.
Napoleon’s troops succumbed in the Russian winter of 1812, as did Nazi Germany in 1941. It is the famous “winter general,” a term that gained popularity during the French invasion of the tsarist empire in the 19th century. Inclement cold has been Moscow’s best ally in history, but this is not the case in its offensive against Ukraine, because the Russians face a rival who knows just as well what it is like to fight below zero.
What the inclement weather is forcing is a reduction in the intensity of the fighting on both sides. This is attested by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military analysis center, in a report dated December 1: “The weather situation continues to slow down the pace of Russian and Ukrainian combat operations.”
Thibault Fouillet, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic and Defense Studies at the University of Lyon, adds that the disadvantages go beyond sub-zero temperatures: “Maybe we only think about the cold and frost of winter, but let’s not forget from the rain, which makes mobility more difficult, especially for armored vehicles, and makes life in the trenches a headache due to the water that leaks. All of these are limiting factors that favor inertia. [en los combates]”.
EL PAÍS has consulted analysts like Fouillet and the Ukrainian military in the last two months to draw up a list of the main disadvantages that make war in winter a headache. Officers from the Tor special forces group, on the Zaporizhia front, from the 1st Armored Brigade, also in Zaporizhia, and soldiers from the 47th Mechanized Brigade, in Avdiivka (Donetsk), have been consulted for this information.
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The massive use of drones is the main military revolution of the war in Ukraine. In the most intense moments of the Battle of Bakhmut, last spring, 300 drones, adding those of the two armies, could operate over this city in eastern Ukraine, including reconnaissance vehicles or bomb drones. These are data provided by Alexander, commander of a Paladin howitzer of the 47th Brigade. In Avdiivka, at the beginning of autumn, there could also be 300 drones. Operations with these devices have been significantly reduced with the cold. On the one hand, because drone batteries last less time the lower the temperatures are. The ISW added that the blizzards of recent days on the Donetsk front make its maneuverability more difficult. Finally, the sky, usually overcast with low clouds, limits the use of reconnaissance drones.
EL PAÍS observed last November on the Avdiivka front the impact of the weather on drone operations. The day dawned with fog and the Ukrainian artillery took the opportunity to unload their fire on the Russian positions. Russian observation drones, especially the Orlan, which can fly at a height of five kilometers, could not identify their positions. When the fog disappeared, the artillery ended its actions and withdrew. At that moment, the vans entered the scene pickup Ukrainians with anti-aircraft machine guns. Bad weather is also a setback for anti-drone defenses because the detection of the aerial target in these machine guns is above all visual, as explained on November 13 on Ukrainian television NV Oleksandr Musiienko, director of the Military Law Research Center.
Unusable vehicles
Snow and icy roads drastically reduce movement with cars, whether passenger cars or SUVs, the main troop transportation system in both armies. If temperatures rise above three degrees for a prolonged period of time, the melted snow and rain turn the roads into muddy areas in which vehicles, including armored ones on tracks, cannot move forward or have to slow down. circulation. Attack maneuvers become limited because, at lower speeds, a convoy is more vulnerable to enemy artillery and drones.
The war in Ukraine in the coming months will be a positional war, with the two rivals fighting to make minimal progress with infantry assaults on advanced front positions. This was detailed by Valeri Zaluzhni, commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in an essay published in November in The Economist. In winter, positional warfare is less agile, as Alexandr Rose, a member of the Tor special forces group, confirms from his experience. Camouflage is more difficult because the vegetation no longer has leaves and in the landscape, which is all white, any color change is better identified. The contrast between body and ambient temperatures is sharper, Rose says, so thermal scopes can more easily capture the movement of night raids. This is important because it is a time of year in which hours without light predominate.
Mines also remain under the snow, making them more difficult to identify, says Rose, echoed by other officers from the 47th Mechanized Brigade in Avdiivka. But what is most limited is the time available for infantry assault operations. The lower the temperatures, the greater the risk of frostbite and hypothermia. The soldier, furthermore, is less agile because he carries more weight and wears more clothing.
Survive in the trench
Military engineer George K. Swinzow wrote a reference essay in the US Marine Corps in 1982, dedicated to winter warfare. Swinzow already highlighted in the introduction that for an army, “low morale is perhaps the most seriously disabling factor.” [del frío]”. Life in the trenches is an ordeal of humidity, disease and a gloomy mood, according to all the experts consulted. The shifts in positions, between the one who is stationed and the one who warms up in the shelter of the trench, must be constant to avoid frostbite. Digging new positions in winter is impossible because the ground is frozen and in the bases installed in forests, the troop shelters dug underground are visited by legions of mice looking for warmth and food, as confirmed by numerous videos shared this fall on the networks. social by units of both armies.
But the harshness of winter on the front line can be an opportunity for Ukraine, as explained in a report last October by the RUSI, the United Kingdom’s defense studies institute: “If Ukrainian troops look for opportunities [en el frente] Instead of trying to break through areas with lines of defenses, Russian forces will have to go outside, exposed to the humidity and cold. If precise bombing can hinder their logistical supply, with the limited training that Russian ground forces have, their climatic casualties can still be maximized.” The RUSI document stressed that last winter, Russian casualties were for this reason “enormously high, even when Russia was superior in fire.”
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