The car market in Italy is flying: in October sales increased by 20.03%, with 139,052 units registered compared to 115,852 in the same month of 2022. This means that the balance sheet for the first ten months of the year reaches a higher 20.52%, with 1,315,964 cars sold compared to 1,091,937 in the same period last year.
Compared to October 2019 – the true reference year because it was pre-covid and pre various tragedies – however the budget is still at a loss, by 11.6% to be precise, the same goes for the comparison of the first ten months of 2019: all 310,000 cars are missing from the appeal, so we are at -19.0%. In short, there is still a lot of ground to make up to make automotive companies safe.
Analyzing sales by type of fuel, however, we see that petrol cars show growth in line with that of the total market: substantially stable at 27.5% share (28.2% cumulatively, +0.5 percentage points) . Diesel, on the other hand, shows a very slight contraction in volumes, to 15.2% share (-3.5 pp, to 18.3% in the 10 months, -1.8 pp). Vehicles equipped with an electric battery also recovered slightly compared to September, with BEVs rising to 4.1% and Plug-ins to 4.1%, for an overall share of ECVs rising to 8.2%.
A sustained increase in volumes instead affects LPG, which is close to a 10% share in the month (+1.1 pp and 9.0% cumulatively). Hybrids rose to 39% of preferences in October, compared to 36.3% a year ago (36.1% in January-October, +2 pp); with 11.5% for the “full” hybrids and 27.5% for the “mild” hybrids.
As far as the analysis of the market segments is concerned, in October we see good growth in sedans and SUVs in the A segment, at 12.0% and 2.5% share respectively. Same trend also in the B segment, with sedans at 20.3% and SUVs at 26.6%. In the medium-sized segment (C), however, sedans dropped, stopping at 4.8% share, while SUVs accelerated to 18.4%. Excellent increase for both body styles in the D segment, with sedans at 0.9% and SUVs at 7.0% of the total. In the high-end segment, sedans are decreasing (0.2% share) compared to the growth of SUVs (1.7%). Finally, station wagons represent 3.3% of the total, MPVs 1.5% and sports cars 0.8%.
But there is optimism for the future: with a better than expected trend, thanks to the newfound product availability and commercial push – factors that should also characterize the final part of the year – the Unrae revises significantly upwards, compared to the July forecast, the end estimate of the year, expected to reach 1,570,000 registrations, up by 19.2% with 250,000 more units in 2022 (but still decreasing to -18.1 % on 2019).
The problem now is to understand how the EU will move and what attitude it will have towards the new anti-pollution regulations – “Our attention – he explains Roberto Vavassori, President of ANFIA – is now focused on the vote in the plenary session of the European Parliament on the Euro 7 standard proposal, scheduled for November 8th in Brussels. We hope that the ambition to make a further contribution to the technological advancement of internal combustion vehicles will be maintained, but in accordance with the spirit of regulatory rationality already emerged during the vote of the European Competitiveness Council and that of the Environment Commission (Envi) of the Parliament European Union on this dossier. It is essential to create the right conditions so that the industry can reach new environmental targets in the transition towards overall zero-emission mobility envisaged by the European regulation”.
Politics also the analysis of Adolfo De Stefani Cosentino, President of Federautothe Federation of car dealers: “Our companies – he explains – are at the forefront in promoting the spread of electric cars and cars with very low CO2 emissions but the gap we find between decarbonisation objectives and customer purchasing behavior remains exaggeratedly high and new orders have been recording an appreciable decline for several months already”.
In short, the situation, despite the +20% in October, is not easy. And he explains the concept well Gian Primo Quagliano, president of Promotor: “As experts well know, but as everyone can understand, the level of registrations that will be obtained throughout 2023 will once again be insufficient to guarantee the regular renewal of a fleet like the Italian one which has more than 40 million cars . And this leads to a further growth in the average age of cars with important repercussions on traffic safety and harmful emissions”.
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