Elections will take place in three eastern federal states in 2024 – the AfD is now leading the polls in Saxony-Anhalt too. The CDU could face a difficult coalition search.
Magdeburg/Munich – The AfD’s election results in Bavaria and Hesse shocked politicians at the beginning of October – but the hard right could win even more votes in the three state elections in the east in 2024. This is also what a new survey from Saxony-Anhalt suggests: According to it, the AfD is currently on course to become the strongest force in the Magdeburg state parliament.
The Sunday question from the Insa Institute sees the right-wing populists at 33 percent, just ahead of the CDU: Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff’s party ranks in the survey commissioned by the Picture at 32 percent. At the same time, according to these data, the Christian Democrats would have to do without at least one of their coalition partners in the future. Insa estimates the FDP in Saxony-Anhalt at 4 percent. As was the case recently in Bavaria, that would not be enough to get into the state parliament.
In the previous Insa survey, the CDU was two percentage points ahead of the AfD (29 percent at the time) with 31 percent. The FDP received six percent and was therefore comparatively well above the five percent threshold.
Saxony-Anhalt survey: No majority without the Left and AfD? The Greens and FDP are wobbling
According to the new survey, the Greens now have 5 percent (-1 percentage point), the Left unchanged at 9 percent and the SPD at 8 percent (-1). Hypothetically, one path to a government majority for Haseloff would be a Kenya coalition made up of the CDU, SPD and the Greens. This alliance governed Saxony-Anhalt from 2016 to 2021, but is not considered Haseloff’s desired constellation: It is obvious that the conservative would rather govern with the SPD and FDP than with the SPD and the Greens.
The latter could now also have to worry about returning to the state parliament. The Greens in Saxony-Anhalt are traditionally weak compared to the national trend. In the election in June 2021, the party got 5.94 percent. They achieved their best result to date in 2011 with 7.1 percent; from 1998 to 2011 the Greens were not represented in the state parliament. The FDP has also only been represented in the state parliament for a period of time since reunification. From 1994 to 2002 and 2011 to 2021, the Liberals had to go into extra-parliamentary opposition.
If both parties miss the chance to enter parliament in 2024, finding a majority could be difficult – similar to what has been the case in the Thuringian state parliament for some time. In a scenario with the four factions AfD, CDU, SPD and Left, there would be no majority for Haseloff’s Christian Democrats according to the current Insa survey without the participation of either the Left or AfD. However, a slightly different election result could be enough to give the unequal “GroKo” made up of the CDU and SPD a majority of seats.
Survey from Saxony-Anhalt: AfD strongest force – role of Wagenknecht alliance still unclear
However, all of this is currently primarily speculation. What remains to be seen is what the expected turnout of the “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” would be like – participation could possibly cost the AfD votes. In recent months, surveys had also seen the AfD in the front in Brandenburg and Thuringia. A right-wing extremism expert confirmed this in an interview with Ippen.Media also further voter “potential” in the east for the AfD.
Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. Insa stated a statistical margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
In the Saxony-Anhalt election on June 6, 2021, the CDU unexpectedly won clearly with 37.12 percent of the vote. The SPD achieved the worst result in its history in Saxony-Anhalt with just 8.41 percent. The FDP managed to re-enter the state parliament with 6.42 percent – and thus recommended itself as a potential partner. The Greens, who had previously been in government, achieved 5.94 percent. The AfD came second with 20.82 percent, falling short of its own goal of becoming the strongest party in the country. The Left achieved 10.99 percent. (fn with material from dpa)
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