Summer has a hard time saying goodbye to Spain, even though the astronomical autumn began last Saturday and the meteorological autumn began on September 1. This week “stable weather will predominate, with generally slightly cloudy skies and an absence of precipitation in most of the territory,” said Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), this Monday. This stability will trigger temperatures, which “will experience a progressive rise” and which, especially starting Thursday, will be clearly higher than usual for the time of year,” with daytime values that could exceed 30° in large areas and even 32° to 34° in points of the southern half of the peninsula.
Is it the usual last wave of heat, popularly known as San Miguel summer? No, it’s worse. “This is a very warm situation for the season, with values between 5° and 10° above normal, more typical of the end of August than the end of September or the beginning of October,” Del Campo contextualizes. Thus, the episode will be “more powerful” than a summer normal, “especially on the weekend and until Monday or Tuesday.” It is also possible that it lasts longer than usual, which is usually just a few days, although at the moment it is not clear how long it will last. “As it started last weekend and will last until the beginning of next week, it will have been 10 days of summer”, points out the expert. “Just as the climate models projected, the new summers of San Miguel exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change”, For his part, the Aemet researcher points out Juan Jesús González Alemán.
This is the day by day prediction
This Monday will be a calm day, with some light rain only in the northwest of Galicia and with temperatures rising in most of the country. “In Badajoz, Córdoba, Granada and Seville values of 33° to 35° will be reached,” exemplifies the spokesperson.
On Tuesday, another day of stable weather, with “generally slightly cloudy skies, although they will be somewhat cloudier in the Cantabrian Sea, where there could be some weak and scattered precipitation.” Temperatures will not vary too much, except for a slight drop in the northwest. The maximum temperatures will exceed 25° in most of the territory and 30° in the southern half. In the interior the early morning will still be cool: in areas of the northern Plateau and central moors such as Palencia and Teruel it will be around 10° in the early hours.
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On Wednesday, more of the same, although a front will brush against Galicia and leave light rains in the northwestern end of this community. In addition, strong winds will blow there and in the Strait. In the rest of the country, “banks of morning fog, also intervals of low clouds in the morning in inland areas, are expected, but in the afternoon it will be clearer.” The winds will blow from the southwest, which will raise temperatures in the eastern Cantabrian Sea to 30°, with a very high risk of fires in much of the Cantabrian coast. 30° to 32° will also be exceeded in cities in the northeast of the peninsula such as Zaragoza or Lleida, and in the southern half, with points of the Guadalquivir such as Seville and Córdoba at 34°.
During the second half of the week, temperatures will continue to rise “slightly but progressively” and the atmosphere “will be very warm for the season in most of the country, especially in the interior of the peninsula and during the central hours of the day.” . Thus, 25° will be widely exceeded and in the northeast and the southern half, 30°, even 32° to 34° in the Guadalquivir. The skies will be slightly cloudy and “an almost total absence of precipitation is expected, although the passage of fronts could cloud the skies in the extreme north”, with some light rain in Galicia.
To know the thermal character of an air mass, its temperature is usually analyzed at about 1500 meters of altitude. Well, at the end of this week and the beginning of the next, record warm values could be reached over the Peninsula. pic.twitter.com/rNHIqGPdcz
— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) September 25, 2023
Starting on Thursday, it will be “an episode of high temperatures for the season” due to atmospheric stability caused by a high pressure ridge that guarantees slightly cloudy skies and, also, that there is no mixing in the air mass. so that the sun effectively heats the surface.” At the same time, “subsidence phenomena occur within this ridge, which consist of a descent of air from the middle and upper levels of the troposphere to lower areas. This causes the air to be compressed and heated as it travels.
Furthermore, these mechanisms “will occur within a mass of very warm air for the time, which will reach Spain from lower latitudes,” explains Del Campo. This mass could “reach record values” for the date, according to Aemet. “There is a high probability that a historic anticyclonic ridge will develop in the coming days,” adds González Alemán. And how long will it last? In principle, this episode will last throughout the weekend and “would last until Monday or Tuesday of next week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty,” details the Aemet spokesperson.
Meanwhile, in the Canary Islands, “a regime of moderate trade winds with some strong intervals will predominate over the next few days, especially in exposed areas.” There will be cloudy intervals in Lanzarote and in the north of the most important islands, without ruling out some light rain in the north of the most mountainous islands. Temperatures will remain unchanged, although they could also rise heading into the weekend.
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