The PP will win the elections of 23-J with between 122 and 140 seats, but it cannot achieve an absolute majority with Vox (which sinks to 21 or 29 parliamentarians), which would open the door to a coalition government of the PSOE and Sumar, according to the pre-election macro survey of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), based on 29,201 interviews. The agency headed by the socialist José Félix Tezanos, whose studies question all the parties except the PSOE, grants those of Pedro Sánchez between 115 and 135 seats (it currently has 120), while Sumar would accumulate 43 to 50 representatives in the palace of the Carrera de San Jerónimo in Madrid (for the current 35 of Unidas Podemos), which gives them a comfortable absolute majority if the highest result is given. Thus, the PSOE and Sumar would have more seats than the right-wing bloc in any of the forks, which would allow them to govern without further parliamentary support. The left would, therefore, have a percentage of the vote of 47.6%, while those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal collect 40.2% of the votes, always according to the CIS. The undecided are so many (35.1%), when there are 18 days left for the generals, that the game is still open.
This macro-poll, which includes a projection of seats by province, is the first in which the CIS gives victory to the PP since September 2022, but in this case it is the closest to a real general election. The study was prepared between June 8 and 27, while in Spain the pacts were being closed in town halls and communities, and the right of Feijóo and the extreme right of Abascal agreed to coalition governments (in the style of the one they already had in Castilla y León), while the President of the Government began his tour of television and radio in Spain to, he says, “puncture the bubble of sanchismo.”
Although the poll gives the PP the winner, it does so by just 0.2 points ahead of the Socialists, which in practice is a technical draw. However, with that he takes five deputies out of the PSOE in any scenario. The CIS data suggests that both the PP (almost 50% compared to its current 88 deputies) and the Socialists are growing, which could even exceed 120 seats in this legislature. On the contrary, Vox suffers a setback from its 52 representatives to a maximum of 29 that the survey gives it. Adding, on the other hand, would skyrocket to 50 parliamentarians, which would greatly improve the current 33 of United We Can.
In the chapter on loss of seats, ERC stands out, which falls from the current 13 representatives to between 5 or 7 (half or less); followed by JxCat, which would have between 3 and 6 seats (it has 8); PNV, which drops from 6 to a maximum of 5 and a minimum of 3. Bildu, for its part, has the possibility of reaching 7 seats (of the 5 currently), while the Galicians of the BNG could obtain from 2 to 5. And which parties could stay at the gates of Congress? According to the CIS, the CUP, the Canary Islands Coalition or Teruel Exists.
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The pollsters asked the interviewees to assess the work of the opposition leader and that of the Prime Minister, so that 71.1% believe that Feijóo has carried out his opposition work poorly or very poorly, compared to 48.9% who has seen Sánchez’s work in the same way. Perhaps that explains why citizens believe that the Socialists have more capacity to manage employment, education, health, social policy, equality or the environment, while they believe that the PP is better for the economy or citizen security. Of the 15 issues for which it is asked, the PSOE is better in 12, according to the CIS. When it comes to rating them, the leader of the PSOE (4.68) receives a better score than the leader of the PP (4.3), but Yolanda Díaz beats both again (4.70). Abascal fails to reach even three (2.96).
The previous CIS survey, published on June 16, gave the PSOE the winner, with 31.2% of the votes and an advantage of barely half a point over the PP. The July barometer, prepared after the regional and municipal elections of 28-M, predicted that Sumar would be placed in third position, with 14.3%, followed by Vox, which rose with 10.6% and repeated data for May. The poll showed that the sum of the leftist options (PSOE and Sumar) would obtain 45.5% of citizen support, compared to 41.4% accumulated by the right-wing bloc (PP and Vox, since Ciudadanos disappears from the Congress). The CIS for June included a strong rise in the two main parties compared to the CIS for May, but it also strongly pushed Yolanda Díaz’s party, which already includes all the signatories of the coalition, including Podemos.
On the contrary, the last sounding of 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, carried out between June 12 and 14, gave victory to the PP (with 31% of the votes), although it lost a little more than two percentage points in vote estimation, while registering a rise of 1.3 percentage points in the PSOE (29%). This was the first study that gives the Socialists the possibility of improving the results of the 2019 elections. Vox, which retains third place with 15%, also rose —fundamentally due to the rise of the PSOE—, which remained at 13%.
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