The long-heralded Ukrainian offensive to liberate the south and east of the partly Russian-occupied country began a week ago. How is it now?
Most independent specialists agree that it is too early to draw conclusions from satellite images or muscular statements from both Kyiv and Moscow. Images that military bloggers distribute daily can also give a distorted picture. It could be weeks, maybe even months, before the fog lifts and it becomes clear who is winning.
What do we know by now?
That, for example, there is currently heavy fighting around Bachmut, Zaporizhia and on the west side of the Donetsk region. Russia is shelling targets in Ukrainian cities every night. According to the authoritative Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian troops have liberated some villages in the east since the start of the offensive, but the Russian army has gone on the offensive elsewhere. The generals in Kyiv will not deploy their best troops until a weak spot in Russia’s defenses has been found. Jack Watling, a British war researcher, says that only then will it become clear whether this offensive has succeeded or failed.
What are the Ukrainian Armed Forces facing?
Numerous Russian defense lines. The Russian occupiers built many of them in the past year. Behind the first lines of trenches and foxholes lie complex minefields of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, covered by Russian drones and artillery. The main Russian line of defense is currently still believed to be about 15 kilometers from the forward Ukrainian positions. And behind them are Russian reserve troops for the third line of defense. The further Ukrainian troops advance, the greater the resistance. A major problem for the attackers is that they can only deploy very limited air support, due to the ubiquitous Russian defenses.
What are the main targets in this phase?
The Ukrainians are now mainly concerned with exploring possible weaknesses, experts say. Ukrainians and Russians have been trying for some time to disable each other’s command, control, reconnaissance and artillery systems. The Russians often use Iranian drones for this purpose, while the Ukrainians use the British Storm Shadow missiles and American Himars, among others. A huge amount of ammunition will be consumed in the coming weeks, which is why many Western countries are once again sending extra artillery shells to Ukraine.
Can the – according to experts less motivated and less trained – Russians run away again, as happened last year during the offensive near Kharkiv?
The problem for the Russian army leadership usually arises when the troops have to reposition and improvise. Some experts predict that the poor training and discipline of the Russian armed forces could lead to panic and perhaps surrender. But according to other experts, this is wishful thinking and the Russians can defend their fortified positions for a very long time. There is, however, the urge to leave. Bloggers shared images of apparently deserting Russian soldiers who were shot by colleagues.
Many experts look at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant with concern. Why?
The Russians have also placed explosives around the nuclear power plant. Zaporizhia is the sixth largest city in Ukraine (more than 700,000 inhabitants before the war) and the nuclear power plant is of great importance for the energy supply in the south. The power station can be thrown into battle by the Russians, as happened before with the blown-up Kachovka dam. The nuclear power plant site is already full of Russian artillery, which the Ukrainians find difficult to fire because of the risks. A second Chernobyl would be a gigantic disaster.
What can we expect from the Ukrainians in the coming weeks?
Count on the Ukrainians to come up with spectacular actions before the NATO summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius (11 and 12 July). On the one hand to show the West that all military aid is put to good use, but also to give the morale of the enemy a blow, according to experts. Putin’s – already damaged – bridge to Crimea will be high on Ukraine’s hit list, as will Russia’s fleet around Crimea. Attacks by Ukrainian-backed anti-Putin rebels in the Russian border region will also be stepped up, as they are expected to cost the Russians a lot of attention and troops.
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