Less than a week from elections for governor in the state of Mexicothe reported discussion is not whether Delfina Gomez will defeat Alejandra del Moral, but if her victory will be by more than 10 points. The average of all published measurements shows a difference of about 15 points, but according to the experts, one should not rely too much on this data, because there are unknown pollsters, or some are known for disseminating results tailored to the client. There are few public surveys, which is explained in part because they were a central instrument in the strategy of the campaigns, which were administered and their results measured.
Whoever went ahead and hired the largest number of polling houses modulated public opinion, since whoever hires them is the owner of their results, which gives them the power to decide if they are published or not, or which one they want to be made known. , which, on the one hand, creates the perception of a overwhelming victory, how would it be the case of Gomez, or the possibility of a surprise, as in the case of Del Moral, who, based on his measurements, recently said that “a horse that reaches wins.” Success, in any case, will be measured by results.
The 15 points they give to gomez in average surveys They are antagonistic to the PRI sayings that the election has closed in margins of error, around three points of difference between the two candidates. However, the most responsible pollsters place the difference at 8 or 9 points in favor of Gómez, while the most serious PRI members estimate that the difference until this weekend was between 6 and 7 points.
Numbers are very important. A Gomez victory by more than 10 points would be almost the coup de grace for the alliance of Va Por Méxicowhile a victory by less than 5 would allow Del Moral to challenge the victory in court and generate the idea that Morena and the president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador they are not infallible and can be defeated in 2024. A close defeat could galvanize expectations for next year’s presidential election, reinvigorating the opposition alliance.
His strategies have been very clear. Gómez, with an advantage from the start of the campaign and the popularity of López Obrador who transfers support to him by osmosis, managed his superiority and avoided making a mistake that would make him lose points. Del Moral he had to run a limited campaign -with limited benefits from state social programs-, without resorting to negative campaigns, and with limited resources.
Gomez’s campaign coordinator, Horace Duarte, he shielded it to minimize the risks, while his team sought to control public opinion. the campaign of Del Moral it focused on territorial work and the search for political agreements. Given the results of this part of the strategy through the published surveys, duarte succeeded, although it is not known if Del Moral’s campaign as well. Some of his advisers affirm that this was the case and that they achieved a support of 6% higher than what they achieved in the 2021 elections.
Agreements with other political forces have been an important part of Del Moral’s strategy. They recently recruited the federal deputy from Morena vincent onofre, state president of Nuevo Espacio -formerly Encuentro Social-, who joined the PRI campaign with approximately, they said, 100,000 Morena militants. The leader’s jump to the side, which was announced at a rally in Chalco, was responded to by Gómez with a campaign closure in recent days in the eastern part of the Valley of Mexico City and in his land, Texcoco, where he recorded that he was losing support in some areas. The PRI strategy has been repeated in various areas controlled by Morena, but will it work?
“The morenos have already come out of the closet,” said an electoral operator from the PRI, who highlighted that in published surveys almost a third of people have declared themselves undecided or did not respond. There could be a hidden vote there. However, several pollsters claim that the name of the PRI has affected the campaign of Del Moral more than it has benefited it. But at the same time, there is an important activism in civil society that does not like Morena, but it is not known if she would be willing to vote for the PRI.
There is another element that cannot be neglected next Sunday. Gómez competes for the Juntos Hacemos Historia alliance in the state of Mexico of Morena, the PT and the Verde, while Del Moral competes for the Va coalition for the state of Mexico, which includes the PRI, PAN, PRD and Nueva Alianza. The difference between alliance and coalition it is not semantic, nor is it synonymous.
Being an alliance, Gómez’s name only appears in one of the six boxes on the ballot, while Del Moral’s appears in four of them. That is to say, the possibilities of voting among those who are not decided at this moment – pollsters estimate that 10% of people decide at the ballot box -, They are 4 against 1 in favor of Del Moral. Likewise, while for Gómez there is only one way to vote on the ballot, for Del Moral there are 16 combinations, from crossing the vote for a single party, to doing it for all four.
Will it be a factor that determines the result? The internal numbers of the PRI itself They make it difficult for Del Moral to come back and win the election, but they don’t want to give up the election. In Morena, they are clear that victory is in their pocket. In light of the possible variables, perhaps the most interesting result, because of its implications and consequences, and because of the recomposition of the alliances, is by how many points Gómez wins, since a victory for her opponent, objectively speaking, seems highly improbable. .
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