Electoral political polls today May 20, 2023
POLITICAL ELECTION SURVEYS – The gap between the Brothers of Italy and the Democratic Party narrows, while the 5-star Movement loses share. This is the picture outlined by the latest survey carried out from the Noto Institute for La Repubblica, which sees the party led by Giorgia Meloni lose 0.5 points in the space of a month, falling to 27.5 percent. From April 20 to May 18, the Democratic Party instead remained stationary at 21 percent while the 5 Star Movement lost one percentage point, reaching 14 percent.
The Lega is stable, at 10 percent, which extends on Forza Italia, down to 6.5 percent (-0.5%). Among the centrist parties, Action lost 0.5 points, settling at 4.5 percent, while Italia viva rose to 3 percent (+0.5%). Behind are the Alleanza Verdi/Sinistra italiana, stable at 3 percent, and +Europe, at 2 percent, while Noi Moderati remains at 1.5 percent.
In total, the centre-right (made up of FdI, Lega, FI and Nm) loses one point and drops to 45.5 percent, while the centre-left (Pd, AVS, +E) remains at 26 percent. A share that reaches 40 percent in the hypothesis of a coalition with the M5s and 48.5 percent if one considers a “wide field” with Azione and Italia viva.
HOW POLLS ARE MADE
Electoral and political polls are carried out by polling companies according to precise scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analysed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for political parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the adult Italian population, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls. This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible.
Generally a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that the pollsters face the greatest difficulty. Interviews for electoral political polls are usually carried out with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion poll companies rely on specialized companies.
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