The winter offensive against Ukraine failed under the leadership of General Valery Gerasimov. That should have consequences for the Kremlin.
Moscow/Kiev/Munich – The new Russian commander-in-chief, Valeri Gerasimov, was supposed to bring a promising turnaround for Russia in the war against Ukraine. On January 11, General Valeri Gerasimov took command of Russian troops from Sergei Surovikin to lead the dreaded winter offensive against Ukraine. But instead of successes, Putin’s most important general saw military defeats, dead and injured on the Russian side. How do you deal with it in the Kremlin?
War failure Valery Gerasimov: How Putin’s most important general failed
Prior to his position in the Ukraine war, Valery Gerasimov was “Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation” for eleven years, so the commander-in-chief was not lacking in experience. But after ex-General Sergei Surovikin was replaced after just three months at the helm of the Russian troops, it seems reasonable to assume that Putin’s expectations of Gerasimov were high. After all, several unsuccessful wars in a row not only damage the military mission, but above all the reputation of the Russian president.
According to information from the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) in Washington, an important goal of the winter offensive was to completely capture the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass by March 31. Unsuccessfully, as the UK Ministry of Defense concluded on April 1: “Along several axes of the Donbass front, Russian forces have achieved only minor successes that have claimed tens of thousands of casualties, while using their temporary personnel advantage from ‘partial mobilization ‘ largely playful from autumn.’
After Gerasimov’s failed winter offensive: pressure on the Kremlin is increasing
The western military experts justify the failure of the winter offensive with the lack of fighting power of the Russian troops. In the Donetsk region, fighting that has been going on for months continued to focus on the strategic city of Bakhmut and the region. There is no end in sight to this bloodiest battle of the war to date. Russia explained the German press agency again and again to prepare for a long war in view of the Western arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers are urging Russian forces to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the region. This is crucial in order to be prepared for Ukraine’s counter-offensive expected in April. The bloggers had recently sharpened their criticism of Moscow’s military leadership. Due to their wide reach, they are likely to have an influence on Putin’s decisions as before. The fact that they publicly criticize the course of action during the war is building up pressure on the Kremlin.
General Gerasimov’s defeat in Ukraine could pose a threat to the Kremlin
Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov has failed in his role in Russian eyes. The analysts of the ISW therefore expect a new restructuring of the Russian command structures for the war against Ukraine soon. However, the previous failures are no longer reversible. They are likely to rub off on Putin’s reputation and thus fuel the internal power struggle among Russia’s elite even more. The Kremlin boss could soon lose the support of the Russian elite.
In particular, Putin’s chef, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, could meanwhile benefit from the current developments. There are repeated suspicions that he is trying to undermine Putin’s power with his critical statements against the Kremlin. Only recently did Prigozhin again sharply criticize Russia’s military. “At the moment, the world has not yet encountered a well-trained Russian army,” the Wagner boss apparently said in a video message. Meanwhile, he boasts of taking the east of the heavily contested city of Bakhmut, despite the difficult conditions. (nz)
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