The pressure for Germany to allow the shipment of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine continues to increase. The Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, announced on Monday that his country “soon” will formally request permission from Berlin to re-export the German-made battle tanks. At the same time, Warsaw is moving to push for a union of states that have Leopard 2s and other heavy weapons to achieve joint shipment. “We will build a smaller coalition of countries ready to donate some of their modern equipment, modern tanks,” Morawiecki assured in an interview with the Polish Press Agency. “We will not passively watch Ukraine bleed to death,” he remarked. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has said that a decision will soon be made on that shipment, the key element in Europe’s military support for kyiv on the eve of the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.
On Friday, after the meeting of the countries of the support group for Ukraine at the Ramstein base (Germany), in which, despite the pressure, Berlin did not give in to sending the tanks, its Defense Minister assured that Germany is not the only country with reluctance that is considering the pros and cons of sending the Leopard 2 and that, if it is done, it would be in agreement with the allies. However, no other country has publicly opposed handing them over. On Sunday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Berlin would not object if Poland sent them. But Baerbock is from The Greens, a coalition partner of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic party and a party that favors sending German main battle tanks. The minister’s statements have not been understood in Berlin as a preview of Scholz’s final decision, but rather as another form of pressure, this time internally, for the German yes.
The decision on a re-export authorization is made by the Federal Security Council, a body chaired by the chancellor, so in the end it is his opinion that prevails. Defense materiel contracts mean that the manufacturer, in this case Germany, has to give the green light if the buying country re-exports the materiel, in this case modern Leopard main battle tanks.
Poland and the Baltic States continue their public mobilization to get Berlin to release the tanks or, at least, in the event that it does not hand over those it has in its arsenal, not to get in the way of the decision of the countries that have shown themselves willing to send them, when Russia’s war in Ukraine is about to complete a year and Western intelligence information is escalating warning of a new offensive by Kremlin troops in the spring.
“At the moment there are no good arguments why battle tanks cannot be provided,” said Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics. “The escalation argument does not work because Russia continues to escalate,” added the Latvian, who is participating in a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. His Estonian counterpart, Urmas Reinsalu, has also urged speeding up the delivery and has stressed that Germany, as the “motor of Europe”, has a responsibility in the matter. However, the main battle tanks had been a red line for Berlin, which has slipped in the past that it fears that Russia will see the gesture as an escalation.
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The urgency to receive the Leopard 2 —one of the most agile and modern tank models and considered the best for Ukraine, both due to the country’s orography and logistical elements, as it is made in Europe— is increasing, as stressed by the president Ukrainian, Volodimir Zelensky. They may not change the direction of the war, but they are considered crucial for the battle of Donbas (eastern Ukraine), which is being extremely bloody, for kyiv to push the Kremlin troops and manage to regain ground, and for the new offensive when the winter chill eases. In addition, the simple fact that Germany authorizes its shipment is already a message for Russia.
A few dozen tanks may not be decisive, President Zelensky has said, compared to Russia’s fleet of hundreds of main battle tanks. “They motivate our soldiers to fight for their values because they show that the whole world is with us,” he said in an interview with the German television channel ARD. The allies have about 2,000 Leopards and there are a dozen European countries close to Ukraine that could send theirs in a relatively short time. Poland has announced that it will start training the Ukrainian Army so that it can use them.
Moscow assures that the Leopard 2 will not make any difference in the battle, but even so it has raised its threats due to the new arms shipments announced by Ukraine’s allies. In addition, Russia notes with satisfaction the internal discussions and divergences in the EU and NATO on the handover of the armored vehicles. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, assured this Monday that the pressure on Germany shows the “nervousness” among Ukraine’s allies. He has also warned of the consequences if the Leopard 2 shipment materializes. “The main thing is that the Ukrainian people will have to pay for all these actions, for all this pseudo-support,” Peskov said, quoted by the Russian state agency Tass.
Meanwhile, the EU is working on the tenth package of sanctions against Russia, which is expected to go ahead in a few weeks. The EU continues to increase support with virtually no fissures for Ukraine, a candidate country for the Union since July. This Monday, the Foreign Ministers of the Twenty-seven have given the green light to another 500 million euros of military aid to Ukraine, with which the funds available to the EU to deliver material to kyiv rise to 3,500 million. In addition, another 45 million have been approved for “non-lethal equipment.”
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