The opposition put an end this Friday to the symbolic “interim government” of Juan Guaidó in Venezuela after four years, which opens a new political stage with the 2024 presidential elections in sightin the midst of deep fractures.
What comes next for the Venezuelan opposition and for Guaidó himself? Here we explain.
(Context: Venezuela: Juan Guaidó is removed as interim president of the country)
How was it removed?
Three of the main parties that accompanied Guaidó promoted eliminate the “interim” in a vote held this Fridayduring a marathon virtual session of the old Parliament with an opposition majority in 2015, which defends its continuity even though its term ended last year.
The decision was approved with 72 votes in favor and 29 against, with eight abstentions. “There is a leap into the void,” questioned Guaidó, who was recognized by the United States and more than fifty countries when he proclaimed himself “interim president” in a square in January 2019.
(See also: Brazil annuls restrictions and Maduro may be at Lula’s inauguration)
This broad international support was not enough to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power.whose re-election in 2018 was denounced as a “fraud” by the opposition.
Is another ‘interim president’ coming?
Guaidó’s “interim presidency” falls, but not yet the Parliament of 2015, which maintains a certain international recognition after the 2020 legislative elections, won by the Chavismo ruler and also branded as fraudulent.
“Who is going to assume the powers with name and surname before the Venezuelans?” Guaidó said.
Former deputies approved create a commission that will assume “executive functions” mainly regarding the control of Venezuelan assets blocked abroad by sanctions.
These funds, which Maduro estimates at 24,000 million dollars, “will never reach the hands of the regime,” said the parties that withdrew their support for the “interim” in a statement. “This is how we have verified it with our allies.”
(You can read: Benedict XVI died: the world says goodbye to the pope who renounced his pontificate)
And Guaido?
“I’m still here and firm,” said the politician, the target of numerous judicial investigations, who, when he proclaimed himself “interim president” in 2019, alleged that, as head of the National Assembly, he should take over the government in the face of a power vacuum due to questions of the re-election of Maduro.
Guaidó sounds like a candidate in the primaries that the fractured opposition intends to organize in 2023 to choose a single candidate to face Maduro in the presidential elections.
“There are leaders in the opposition who consider that exercising the interim government was an advantage for an eventual candidacy of Guaidó,” political adviser Pablo Andrés Quintero told AFP.
(We recommend: The challenging year that awaits Latin America: projections for 2023)
Is it a triumph for Maduro?
Daniel Varnagy, university professor and doctor in Political Science, believes that Maduro’s government could make electoral concessions in negotiations resumed with the opposition in Mexico last monthby “understanding that it needs legitimacy of origin”.
And, with the opposition divided, his re-election in 2024 does not seem like a problem.
“I’m afraid Maduro won today,” said Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB), on Twitter.
(Also: The political tension that is coming in the US with the possession of the new Congress)
Alarcon believes that the change in strategy will be “costly” for the opposition, which has seen its popularity wane.
Guaidó’s, according to the polling firm Datanálisis, has fallen below 20% after exceeding 60% in 2019.
Varnagy thinks that there is a crisis of representation that has left “civil society increasingly orphaned.” “There were not only hopes for political change, but also real expectations (…), but they were not fulfilled,” he says.
What about the international community?
Guaidó’s international support has been diluted in these four years. Washington, his main ally, has not reacted to the elimination of the “interim”, but had previously sent delegates to Caracas to meet with Maduro despite describing him as a “dictator” and violator of human rights.
The context has also changed with the energy crisis created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Venezuelan crude, the target of an embargo since 2019, has become more attractive.
(See also: New Russian bombings in Ukraine a few hours after the end of the year)
The White House will allow the energy company Chevron to operate in Venezuela after the first agreements reached at the political negotiation table taken over by delegates from Maduro and the opposition in Mexico. And in Latin America governments of countries like Brazil, Colombia and Argentina turned to the left.
Thus, Varnagy believes that the international community would see the eventual continuity of the president as “a lesser evil” compared to its energy needs… even with blocked resources.
AFP
#Guaidós #interim #government #Venezuela