The Serbian president ordered the country’s armed forces to be on the highest alert. According to Emma Hakala, a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, it would not be possible for Serbia to increase tensions in Kosovo if Russia did not accept and support its actions.
of Kosovo and Serbia have intensified since the end of the year, which has been reflected in, among other things, an increase in shootings.
On Tuesday, protesting ethnic Serbs set up new roadblocks in the ethnically divided city of Mitrovica in northern Kosovo, reports news agency Reuters.
On Monday evening, the president of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić ordered the country’s armed forces to the highest state of readiness in terms of combat readiness. In addition, the president ordered that the strength of the special forces be increased from 1,500 to 5,000.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić speaking to the media in Belgrade on Tuesday.
The Ministry of Defense of Serbia stated in its press release that it is a response to recent events. It added that it believed that Kosovo was preparing to attack the Serbs and clear the roadblocks by force.
Serbs have set up several roadblocks in and around Mitrovica in response to the arrest of a former Serbian police officer earlier in December. He had allegedly attacked the police in previous protests.
Kosovo’s government said Monday that police are ready to lift roadblocks, but are awaiting a response from the NATO-led KFOR crisis management force.
Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić
Serbian prime minister Ana Brnabić already said last week that the situation with Kosovo is “on the verge of an armed conflict”. It is possible that the Serbian leaders are preparing the people for the coming conflict with their strong rhetoric, states a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Emma Hakala.
For now, he still considers an armed confrontation unlikely.
“I would say it’s more about a symbolic show of force than preparing for military action.”
Serbia’s defense minister also assured the RTS television channel on Monday that “there is no reason to panic, but there is reason to be worried”. It may be to the advantage of Serbian leaders to maintain tensions with Kosovo, as long as they do not escalate into violence, Hakala estimates.
“It is important for the Serbian leaders to show in the eyes of the people that they are stronger than Kosovo.”
Read more: Serbian troops were again placed on alert at the Kosovo border
Kosovo declared independence in 2008, but Serbia does not recognize its independence. Serbia’s biggest supporter in the Kosovo issue has been Russia. Unlike the United States and the majority of EU countries, Russia does not recognize Kosovo’s independence either.
According to Hakala, Russia does not direct Serbia’s actions, but enables it: it would not be possible for Serbia to increase tensions in Kosovo if Russia did not accept and support its actions.
“In the long run, what Serbia is able to do in Kosovo depends in some way on Russia,” says Hakala.
“Interpretations have been presented that before the Russian attack [Ukrainaan] The Serbian president would have thought that if Russia wins easily in Ukraine, Serbia could also act in Kosovo. But when Russia got into problems in Ukraine, it has not been possible for Serbia to move forward with regard to Kosovo.”
On the other hand, some researchers have considered it unlikely that Serbia would have planned an armed confrontation at any point, Hakala points out.
As the Russian war of aggression dragged on, Serbia’s rhetoric softened, Hakala says. From time to time, Serbia’s political rhetoric has still overlapped with Russia’s hostile rhetoric. For example, in the summer, a parliamentarian from the Serbian ruling party Vladimir Dukanovic wrote on Twitter that Serbia may have to start “denazification in the Balkans”, reported the German Deutsche Welle -channel.
Dukanovic later apologized for his exit. However, the same tone of speech is not exceptional, for example, in the Serbian yellow press, Hakala states.
Serbian and Kosovo, tensions often flare up over everyday issues, such as Kosovo’s autumn decision to ban Serbian license plates on the country’s territory. The license plate issue was resolved, but the Serbian protesters did not dismantle the roadblocks.
Read more: License plate disputes between Kosovo and Serbia are heating up again
Hakala does not see any easing of the relationship between Serbia and Kosovo in the near future. The fundamental differences of opinion between the parties are great, and neither is ready to budge.
According to Hakala, the European Union also has a place to look in the mirror. The Union has managed to resolve the immediate disputes between Serbia and Kosovo, but it has lacked the vision and tools to find a permanent solution.
“The EU’s policy in the Balkans has been accused of being too reactive. The Balkans have long been an area in which the EU has not wanted to interfere too much, but it has been hoped that things will correct themselves when the EU processes are underway in the countries.”
In part, the erosion of democracy and the president’s powerful position in Serbia have contributed to the use of the situation in Kosovo as a political lever, Hakala reflects.
“The EU must ask itself whether tensions would have been prevented by more intervention in Serbia’s undemocratic tendencies. On the other hand, the fear has been that criticism would drive Serbia even more into the arms of Russia.”
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