“Much of the social history of the Western world in recent decades has involved replacing what worked with what sounded good.” Thomas Sowell
a is coming hard winter for Western Europe and the european politicians point an accusing finger at Russia. They should, however, look back home. Their energy policies have made their countries dependent on Russian gas.
The government of the Netherlands, for example, is shutting down the gas field of Groningen (Groningen in Dutch), the largest in the European Union and one of the 10 largest in the world. It contains available reserves of 450 million cubic meters, enough to cover all the needs of the Union for a year. Instead of increasing production, however, the country is reducing it to close it in 2023.
The decision is political. The European Union has committed to ending fossil fuels in the belief that this will stop the global warming. Gas extraction, on the other hand, has been considered responsible for a series of small earthquakes, magnitude 2 and smaller, but at least one of 3.6 in 2012. The cost of closing the field, however, is much greater than that of the tremors.
Another policy that has reduced fuel availability in Western Europe has been the ban on hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in France in 2011, Denmark and Bulgaria in 2012, the Netherlands in 2015, Germany in 2017 and the United Kingdom in 2019. This has prevented the development of significant gas reserves. The new British Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced that she will remove that ban in the UK, but it is too late. The curious thing is that in the United States the only significant reduction in carbon emissions was registered by the increase in the production of fracking gas, which replaced coal in many thermoelectric plants. Many specialists argue, on the other hand, that hydraulic fracturing is less polluting than other forms of hydrocarbon extraction.
In 2011, after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she would close all nuclear power plants in her country by 2022. The German government has upheld the decision, despite the problems it has caused. Of 17, there are still three floors left; one will close this year, two will be without generating, but in a position to restart, in case the energy crisis worsens.
Public policies have costs. In California, United States, the average price of gasoline was this October 9 at 6,335 dollars per gallon; in Texas it was 3,262. The reason is the restrictions on refining in California.
Barriers to fossil fuel production will not have a significant effect on climate change. Even if all the actions promised in the 2015 Paris Agreement were realized by 2030, which is highly doubtful, the total temperature reduction by 2100 would be just 0.048 degrees Celsius, according to Bjorn Lomborg. On the contrary, some of the policies that are being applied, such as restricting gas or nuclear power, will increase emissions and warming.
Politicians are replacing policies that work with ones that sound good but perform worse. They must learn to be pragmatic. For now, the strategies adopted by Western Europe are going to produce an energy crisis this winter that will mainly affect the poorest. And the fault is not Russia.
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