Finland the men’s national football team took a valuable 2-0 away win over Montenegro in their last match of the Nations League on Monday. Thanks to the win, Huuhkajat avoided relegation to the C-League and finally finished second in its group.
In the best case, the second place can still bring significant additional benefits in terms of the upcoming European Championship qualifiers and advancement to the Games, but it requires suitable results for Finland in the last group stage matches of the Nations League played today.
If Finland is the best group winner in the B-league, it will qualify for the second qualifying basket in the group draws of the EC qualifiers. Otherwise, Finland is in the third basket, i.e. basically two tougher countries will be in the same qualifying group.
In addition, the second place in the best group would mean a good position when allocating places to the European Championship play-offs: The winners of the Nations League groups automatically get to them. If one or more of the group winners make it to the games directly from the qualifiers, the places will be allocated to the group runners-up.
Thus the best group winner is determined and with these results Finland takes the place:
Matches against group jumbos are not taken into account in the comparison of group twos. The reason for this is Russia’s elimination from the League of Nations.
A 0–1 loss and a 1–1 draw against Romania will therefore eliminate Finland. In comparison, Finland has seven points with a goal difference of 7–4.
In group 2, the second place will be taken by Iceland or Albania, but neither will get more than six points. So that leaves blocks 1 and 4, which will be played to the end today.
In block 1 the second place is held before the last round by Ukraine with 10 points. Scotland is at the top with 12 points. The teams will meet in Krakow today.
Last in the group is Armenia, from which both Ukraine and Scotland have taken a full six points with clear numbers. Thus, at this stage, Ukraine has four points with a goal difference of 2–4 and Scotland has six points with a goal difference of 5–4 at this stage.
From Finland’s point of view, the situation would be resolved in the simplest way if Armenia does not beat Ireland in its last match and remains in the group jumbo. Then the second in the group cannot overtake Huuhkaji.
If Armenia were to surprise Ireland away from home, the situation would be slightly weaker for Finland. If Ireland finished last in the group, Scotland’s points in the second place comparison would be nine at this point and Ukraine’s six.
Ukraine’s goal difference in the comparison would be 8–3, so a draw against Scotland would take them past Finland in the comparison thanks to a better goal difference.
In summary: If Scotland wins or Armenia does not win, Finland will be ranked better than the other team in group 1 in the comparison of the second group.
In block 4 the situation is as follows: Norway and Serbia are at the top of the group with 10 points. Slovenia has five points, Sweden three. In the final round, Norway hosts Serbia and Sweden hosts Slovenia.
From Finland’s point of view, the most obvious thing would be for Sweden not to beat Slovenia and thus remain a group jumbo. Both Norway and Serbia have taken full points from Sweden, so in the comparison of the second group they would now have only four points.
Therefore, the runner-up in the group could not possibly overtake Finland.
If However, if Sweden beats Slovenia and avoids relegation to the C-League, the situation is more complicated for Finland.
Then Norway would have nine points at this stage, as it has received only one point from Slovenia. Serbia, on the other hand, would have six points with a goal difference of 5–2.
If Norway and Serbia draw today, Norway will win the group based on head-to-head matches. Then Serbia would rise to seven points with the same goal difference as Finland.
It’s going to be really special, Norway and Serbia tied the scores at 2-2. Then Serbia’s goal difference would be the same 7-4 as in Finland. At this point, the number of away goals would be the deciding factor. Serbia would have three of them, Finland four.
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