PT has greater advantage over Bolsonaro among Minas Gerais voters; on the national scene, ex-president leads with 47%
the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (EN) alone leads the dispute for Planalto Palace among voters in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, the 2 largest electoral colleges in the country. The results are from Datafolha surveys released this Thursday (22.Sep.2022).
In Rio de Janeiro, the PT candidate is technically tied with the current Chief Executive, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), considering the study’s margin of error.
Read the full results by state below:
SAO PAULO
- Lula (PT): 41%
- Bolsonaro (PL): 34%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 7%
- Simone Tebet (MDB): 7%
- Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): two%
- Eymael (DC): 0%
- Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0%
- white/null: 5%
- don’t know/didn’t answer: two%
- others: not mentioned
The survey interviewed 2,000 voters in 86 municipalities in the State of São Paulo. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points and the confidence interval is 95%. is registered in TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number SP-07041/2022, cost BRL 231,902.00 and was paid by the Leaf Group and for Rede Globo.
MINAS GERAIS
- Lula (PT): 46%
- Bolsonaro (PL): 33%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6%
- Simone Tebet (MDB): 5%
- Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 1%
- Felipe d’Avila (New): 0%
- Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0%
- Eymael (DC): 0%
- white/null: 3%
- don’t know/didn’t answer: 4%
- others: not mentioned
The survey interviewed 1,512 voters from September 20 to 22 in 81 municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points at a 95% confidence interval. is registered in TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number MG-08517/2022, cost BRL 231,526.00. was paid by Leaf Group and for Rede Globo.
RIO DE JANEIRO
- Lula (PT): 40%
- Bolsonaro (PL): 38%
- Ciro Gomes (PDT): 7%
- Simone Tebet (MDB): 5%
- Soraya Thronicke (Union Brazil): 1%
- Felipe d’Avila (New): 0%
- Vera Lucia (PSTU): 0%
- white/null: 5%
- don’t know/didn’t answer: two%
- others: not mentioned
The survey interviewed 1,526 voters in 45 municipalities in the State of Rio de Janeiro, from September 20 to 22, 2022. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points and a confidence interval of 95%. is registered in TSE (Superior Electoral Court) with the number RJ-07687/2022 and cost BRL 176,912.00. was paid by Leaf Group and for Rede Globo.
NATIONAL SCENARIO
Considering Brazil as a whole, with interviews carried out in the 27 units of the Federation, Datafolha shows Lula in the lead, with 47%, against 33% for Bolsonaro.
The PT candidate varied 2 percentage points upwards in a week, while the current president maintained the same percentage as in the previous round.
The survey heard 6,754 people in 343 municipalities in all 27 units of the Federation. It is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-04180/2022, it cost R$ 473,780 and was paid by the Leaf Group and for Rede Globo.
Lula currently has, according to Datafolha, 50% of the valid votes and could be elected in the 1st round. This percentage varied 2 points upwards in one week. Bolsonaro has 36%, against 35% in the previous study.
2nd round: LULA WON
In an alleged direct dispute with Jair Bolsonaro, the PT candidate would have 54% of voting intentions, against 38% for the current president. Blanks and nulls are 7%, against 2% of undecided.
RESEARCH COMPANIES
Several research companies in Brazil call themselves “institutes”, which can give the idea that they are philanthropic entities or linked to some educational institution. In reality, they are all private for-profit companies. What differentiates them, in some cases, is the portfolio of clients they have and the rules for accepting certain contracts.
PodeData, for example, only carries out research for the private sector (including studies commissioned by the digital newspaper Power 360) and does not accept contracts from government agencies, politicians, candidates or parties. Datafolha (a company belonging to the group that owns Folha de S.Paulo, UOL and the bank PagBank) does not work for parties or politicians, but accepts government contracts. The other companies do not have any type of restriction.
O ipecderived from the old Ibope, is not called “Institute”. Ipec stands for Intelligence and Consulting Research. It is a commercial company that, like the former Ibope, continued with several contracts with Grupo Globo, with its research being publicized on the broadcaster’s television news. Ipec has no restrictions on accepting contracts with governments, parties or politicians. The command is from the statistician Márcia Cavallari, who made a career at Ibope and is now the CEO of Ipec.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
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