Rome can help him build a minority capable of defusing the European initiative
FROM THE ENCOUNTER IN BRUSSELS. The negotiation with Brussels per avoiding the cut in funds has already started and will go live in the next 6-8 weeks, but Viktor Orban is aware that it may not go through. This is why he knows that the real game could be played between mid-November and December: to win it he will need the support of some friendly governments and the positioning of the next Italian executive is likely to prove decisive. Rome could help him build the blocking minority needed to reject the Commission’s attempt to turn off the tap of cohesion funds. And the signals received on Thursday with the vote of the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia MEPs go precisely in the direction desired by the Hungarian premier.
The latest move by Brussels seriously worries Orban. Only three days ago he called the report of the European Parliament “a boring joke”, which accuses him of having transformed Hungary into an “electoral autocracy”. This is a very harsh criticism, because according to the majority of MEPs Hungary can no longer be called a democracy. In reality, this opposition is bread for the teeth of the leader who has sat at the table of the European Council for the longest time and who has always fed on the clash with the EU institutions. Yesterday, however, the government’s reaction to him was decidedly different. The cut in funds proposed by the Commission is not an ideological push, but a concrete measure with tangible effects. It is worth 7.5 billion, which corresponds to 5% of the Hungarian annual GDP: a blow capable of bringing the country’s economy to its knees. For this reason Orban is convinced that the measure must be stopped at all costs: by seeking a compromise with Brussels or, if this is not enough, by clinging to governments ready to support it.
To try to settle the disputes on the rule of law with Poland and Hungary, the European Union had hitherto used the weapon of Article 7. A procedure that can even lead to the loss of the right to vote in the Council, but which has proved ineffective. To trigger the maxi-sanction, a unanimous green light is required and the two countries have always covered each other, defusing any possible measure against them. But with the new conditionality mechanism, things have changed: to approve the cut in funding from the EU budget it is not necessary to reach unanimity in the Council, a qualified majority is enough. For the Commission proposal to become immediately effective, it is sufficient for at least 15 Member States representing 65% of the population to give the green light. For Orban it is therefore essential to build a so-called blocking minority, which is formed by bringing together at least four states that represent more than 35% of the European population.
Despite the rupture of relations due to the different positions on the Ukrainian crisis, Poland and Hungary remain allies in the battle against the “interference” of Brussels on the rule of law in a “simul stabunt, simul cadent” logic. Today to you, tomorrow to me. For the same reason, other countries that receive a lot of money from the EU budget and that have some problems with the rule of law could also be tempted to defend Orban: Bulgaria, Romania, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, in the past, had already taken sides in this. sense. But their vote against is not enough, Orban needs other allies. We look to the new Swedish government, of course, but above all to the Italian one that will come out of the polls on Sunday. With 13.4% of the EU population, Italy can shift the balance at the Council table. “Will the right stay with those who respect the rule of law or with Orban?” asked the undersecretary for EU affairs, Enzo Amendola, who today represents the Italian government on the General Affairs Council, the body that will have to take the decision.
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