By Maria Carolina Marcello
BRASÍLIA (Reuters) – Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) fluctuated 2 points down and registers 45% of voting intentions, while president and reelection candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PL) remains stable with 32%, pointed out a Datafolha poll this Thursday, which signaled a greater possibility of the presidential race being decided only in the second round.
A previous survey by the institute, from two weeks ago, registered Lula with 47% of voting intentions in the dispute for Palácio do Planalto, and Bolsonaro with the same 32%.
Even though Lula’s oscillation occurred within the margin of error, of 2 percentage points, the poll once again showed a downward trend in the PT’s advantage over Bolsonaro. In August, that difference had gone from 18 points to 15. Now, the gap has gone to 13 points.
The new data point to lower chances of Lula’s eventual victory in the first round. For this to occur, he needs to have more than half of the valid votes. In August, Lula had 51%, a number that now rises to 48%.
The survey was carried out between Wednesday and Thursday, therefore, after the beginning of electoral propaganda on radio and television. It may also have captured voters’ perceptions of the debate between presidential candidates held on Sunday by TV Band and last week’s interviews with TV Globo’s Jornal Nacional.
For the so-called second platoon, formed by candidates who present themselves as alternatives to the two leaders of the dispute, the exposure on TV may have had a positive effect. Datafolha showed the PDT candidate, Ciro Gomes, with 9%, against 7% in August, followed by senator Simone Tebet (MDB), who rose to 5%, against 2%. Ciro and Tebet are technically tied at the edge of the margin.
The share of those intending to vote blank or null also varied within the margin of error to 4%, compared to 6% in August. Another 2% said they still did not know who to vote for, the same percentage measured in the last survey.
2ND SHIFT AND REJECTION
In a possible second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the PT would win by 53% to 38%, a score that also fluctuated within the margin in relation to the one verified in August, from 54% to 37%. The difference in favor of Lula, which was 17 points, has now changed to 15.
Datafolha also recorded a worsening of Lula in the Southeast Region, with 41% support, compared to 44% in August. Bolsonaro, in turn, got 35%, against 32% in the last poll. The distance between the two candidates dropped from 12 to 6 points in the region, according to the institute.
In the North Region, it was Bolsonaro who suffered a drop, from 43% to 39%, while Lula fluctuated from 41% to 42%.
According to the survey, Lula continues to have the best performance among the poorest – who earn up to 2 minimum wages – with 48%, among Northeasterners (58%) and among beneficiaries of Auxílio Brasil (49%).
The president, on the other hand, fares better among the richest – above 10 minimum wages – with 45%, among self-declared whites (38%), and among evangelicals (48%).
When the topic is rejection, Bolsonaro still has the highest level: 52% responded that they would not vote for the president at all, compared to 51% in August. Lula is rejected by 39% of those interviewed, against 37% in the previous poll.
The assessment of the Bolsonaro administration was also raised. For 31% of respondents, the government is great or good (compared to 30% in the previous survey, when it registered the highest rate since March 2021). Already 42% evaluate it as bad or terrible (compared to 43% in August).
Datafolha interviewed 5,734 people in 285 cities across the country.
(Edited by Pedro Fonseca)
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