In 3rd place is the PL candidate for the government of Minas Gerais, Senator Carlos Viana, with 5%
The governor of Minas Gerais Romeo Zema (Novo) alone leads the reelection contest with 47% of the votes in the 1st round, shows a Datafolha poll carried out from August 16 to 18 and released this Thursday (Aug.18, 2022).
Former mayor of Belo Horizonte Alexandre Kalil (PSD) has 23% of the votes. The gap to Zema is 24 percentage points. Next up is the senator Carlos Viana (PL), with 5%.
The survey interviewed 1,216 voters in 60 municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais and has a margin of error of 3 points more or less. It is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number MG-06602/2022, it cost R$ 231,526.00 and was paid by the Leaf Group and on TV Rede Globo.
Read below the results of the scenario stimulated in the 1st round with all candidates:
- Romeo Zema (New): 47% – fluctuated in the margin of error (48% in the previous survey);
- Alexandre Kalil (PSD): 23% – fluctuated in the margin of error (21% in the previous survey);
- Carlos Viana (PL) – 5% – fluctuated in the margin of error (4% in the previous survey);
- Marcus Pestana (PSDB): 1% – maintained (1% in the previous survey);
- Renata Regina (PCB): 2% – maintained (2% in the previous survey);
- Vanessa Portugal (PSTU): 2% – fluctuated in the margin of error (3% in the previous survey);
- Lorene Figueiredo (Psol): 1% – maintained (1% in the previous survey);
- Cape Tristan (PMB): 1% – 1st time tested;
- Lourdes Francisco (PCO): 1% – 1st time tested;
- Indira Xavier (UP): 0% – 1st time tested;
- white/null/none: 9% – fluctuated in the margin of error (8% in the previous survey);
- could not answer: 9% – fluctuated in the margin of error (10% in the previous survey).
The research removed the name of Miguel Corrêa (PDT), who will not run for governor of Minas Gerais, and included those of Cape Tristan (PMB), Lourdes Francisco (PCO) and Indira Xavier (UP), whose candidacies were made official for the dispute after the Datafolha survey at the end of June.
The scenario again indicates a possible victory for Zema in the 1st round, considering the blank and null votes. To be elected under these conditions in Brazil, the candidate must receive at least 50% plus 1 of the valid votes. That is, he needs to have more votes than all his opponents combined. In this calculation, blank or null votes are not considered.
The sum of their 9 competitors (36%) gives Novo’s candidate an 11-point advantage.
This is Datafolha’s 1st survey carried out after the end of party conventions (August 5th) and the deadline for registering candidacies (August 15th) at the TSE.
2nd TURN
If there is a 2nd round, Datafolha recorded the following scenario in the clash between Zema and Kalil:
- Romeo Zema (New): 56%;
- Alexandre Kalil (PSD): 33%;
- white/null/none: 7%;
- could not answer: 3%.
SENATE
If the election were today, the state deputy Cleitinho Azevedo (PSC) would be elected to the single seat in the Senate for Minas with 12% of the votes. Subsequently, 5% score the senator Alexandre Silveira (PSD), the Pastor Altamiro Alves (PTB), Bruno Miranda (PDT) and Sara Azevedo (PSOL).
Read below the results of the scenario stimulated for the Senate:
- Cleitinho Azevedo (PSC): 12%;
- Alexandre Silveira (PSD): 5%;
- Pastor Altamiro Alves (PTB): 5%;
- Bruno Miranda (PDT): 5%;
- Sara Azevedo (PSOL): 5%;
- Irani Gomes (PRTB): 3%;
- Marcelo Aro (PP): 3%;
- Marcelo Alvaro Antonio (PL): 3%
- Gilson Reis (PCdoB): two%
- Dirlene Marques (PSTU): 1%
- Naomi Coura (PCO): 1%
- white/null/none: 28%;
- could not answer: 27%.
Read other polls for the government and Senate in Minas Gerais:
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
Research information began to be compiled by the journalist Fernando RodriguesEditor-in-Chief of Poder360, on its website, in 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, Click here.
#Zema #Kalil #Datafolha