The French go to the polls again. In the next Sundays -June 12 and 19-, they will have to elect the 577 members of the National Assembly. The Left Union has upset the political climate in France and reaches the final stretch with a slight advantage of one point in voting intentions that could worry the Macronists with an absolute majority in Parliament. According to Ipsos Sopra Steria, abstention could reach 54%.
Seven weeks after the elections that gave Emmanuel Macron the victory again to continue at the head of the Elysee, the legislative elections arrive with concerns for the president – who has the majority in the current Parliament – and much at stake.
The pressure has been mounting since Macron’s victory, when he edged out far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the presidential runoff, nullifying his third bid for head of state.
The pot bubbled as Le Pen’s political nemesis, left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, allied himself with a fringe of left-wing parties, a move that allowed him to overtake Le Pen and look higher to wrest a majority from Macron in the Parlament.
The paradox of this political contest is that while Le Pen came second in the presidential race, compared to Mélenchon’s third place, and elevated the extreme right to an unprecedented electoral performance, her party enters the legislative elections of the June 12 and 19 in a weaker position than Mélenchon, backed by his alliances.
Macron’s party and its centrist allies have 350 deputies – 61 above the absolute majority – in the outgoing Parliament. However, his party, La República en Marcha, has changed and has had to negotiate with other centrists. Now the viability of his program depends on whether the parties that have supported him manage to maintain a comfortable majority in the new Assembly.
At stake: the political composition of Parliament
The left could change the political composition in the Assembly with the unprecedented coalitions led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the new left-wing platform called Nupes – New Popular, Ecological and Social Union – which includes France Insumisa, Los Ecologistas, the Socialist Party and the Communist Party on the rise, and that now gives them hope of a victory in the legislative elections.
And it is a concern for Macron because French voters often choose to give the majority in the chamber to the party that represents the elected head of state. But in these elections, Nupes, the new movement, has been strengthened in the polls against Macron’s formation and the National Group of the far-right Marine Le Pen.
The French researcher Sandra Laugier, from the Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University, was consulted by the EFE agency to understand one more reason for the advance of who has become the great enemy of the centrist president. “Mélenchon has managed to carve out a space for himself in the media, within a campaign little followed in France, due, in part, to the electoral calendar,” explained Laugier.
Some elections that take place, since 2002, immediately after the presidential ones and that have historically conditioned the legislative ones.
The other concern is the disinterest of the French in these elections. According to the Ipsos Sopra Steria survey published on Thursday June 9, 46% of those surveyed say they will vote on Sunday June 12 in the first round -there are 48 million registered-. Turnout in the first round of the 2017 legislative elections was 48.7%.
Brice Teinturier, delegate general director of the Ipsos Polling Institute, consulted by the local media ‘Franceinfo‘, explains that there is a “participation that could be between 44 and 48%, therefore, an abstention that could be 54%. In 2017, it was already a record, abstention was 51.3%. So we are really in an election that is not very mobilizing, “said Teinturier.
The left-wing coalition leads the polls in the legislative elections
The Ipsos Sopra Steria poll for the media ‘France.tv’ and ‘Radio France’ published on Thursday, June 9, gives a technical tie between leftists and centrists. Nupes leads the voting intentions in the first round with 28%, one point ahead of Macron’s coalition called Ensemble! (Together) with 27% and then by the formation of Le Pen who would remain at 19.5%.
Mélenchon asked the French since April 19 to elect him Prime Minister and asked that for this “the majority be given to the rebellious deputies and the Popular Union for this great battle” and that they use “the legislative ones as an electoral ‘third round’” to give the majority to their formation.
“If we want, we can. And this time is not a small opportunity. There is a door that is there, either you take it or you choose the other”, said the third most voted candidate during the first round of the French presidential elections.
For Laugier, “the slogan, ‘Mélenchon, prime minister’, has achieved the goal of focusing attention, even if it is a bit utopian for him to be appointed prime minister,” the academic points out.
Mélenchon seeks to impose a cohabitation – since the beginning of the mandate – that the country has already experienced three times: 1986-1988, 1993-1995 and 1997-2002, the first two under the presidency of the socialist François Mitterrand and the third under the mandate of the Conservative Jacques Chirac.
And although Macron has already appointed his prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, a Parliament without a majority of the ruling party could lead to a change of Executive. But Macron has warned that it is he who appoints a government. To which Mélenchon responded under the argument that “the Constitution does not oblige the president, but, by the policy followed by Chirac or Mitterrand, the person who has the (political) mandate of Parliament is appointed.”
In the second round (June 19), according to this survey, the distribution of seats foresees that Nupes can win 175 to 215 seats of the 577 that the National Assembly has. The Ensemble coalition could obtain between 260 and 300 seats and Le Pen’s National Regrouping could count between 20 and 50.
Following are the deputies from the LR/UDI/DVD coalition (Los Republicanos, La Unión de Demócratas e Independientes and La Diversa Derecha) who would obtain an estimated 35 to 55 seats, while the number of deputies from the Izquierda Diversa coalition ( which houses Nupes dissidents) would be between 10 and 18.
This means that the absolute majority, located in the 289 seats, would be in danger for the macronista alliance.
The themes of the legislative campaign: police violence, retirement age and the EU
The issue of security has become important due to the recent episodes of alleged police violence, among which the riots in the Champions League final on May 28 stand out, where there were robberies and fans gassed by the police, and the death of a young woman shot by officers for skipping a police checkpoint in Paris.
Mélenchon ignited the debate when he stated, in relation to this last fact, that “the police kill”, creating the indignation of the center, right and extreme right sectors.
Macron has been indirectly involved in the electoral arena and traveled this Thursday to the Tarn department, in the south of the country, the Mélenchon electoral zone, to talk about community policing and the reinforcement of gendarme brigades.
In addition, he took the opportunity to attack the positions of Nupes and the National Association with respect to the European Union (EU).
“What do the extremists propose? Some, do not apply the treaties and, therefore, consider that it is an association in which the rules are not respected (alluding to Nupes). The others do not pay the contributions (National Association)”, Macron said.
Another of the campaign issues has been the increase in the retirement age from 62 to 65, which confronts the Macron government with the two movements that aspire to counteract its power in the legislative elections.
When to retire? It is once again a point of friction and possible erosion of the Macron coalition that seeks to reissue an absolute majority in Parliament.
Macron’s main adversaries, Le Pen and Mélenchon, have seen retirement age as an Achilles’ heel to focus their attacks. While Le Pen wants to keep the age at the current 62 years, the Nupes leader intends to lower it by two years, to 60.
Contrary to the presidential ones, the legislative ones in France usually arouse little interest in the electorate and this year is no exception. According to a survey, only 38% follow the campaign.
The votes of the foreign constituencies are already known
The elections have already begun for voters from overseas regions and residents abroad. Emmanuel Macron’s candidates, under the Ensemble! coalition, lead the first round in foreign constituencies.
They win eight of the 11 constituencies of the French residing abroad and that were at stake in the first round this Sunday, which was held a week before the legislative elections in metropolitan France scheduled for Sunday, June 12.
According to data from the Ministry of the Interior, collected by the EFE agency, the other constituencies are led by two candidates from the left-wing coalition Nupes and another from the conservative party UDI. The final results of those 11 seats will be known on June 19, after a second round that will be held between June 17 and 18.
One of the surprises of these 11 constituencies, which each represent one deputy, was the failure of former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, born in Barcelona and running for Macron’s La República en Marcha party in the fifth foreign constituency that includes Spain and Portugal.
,With EFE, AP, AFP and local media
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