Colombians voted this Sunday to elect a new president. They decided on a second round between the leftist Gustavo Petro, who promises generous social programs, and Rodolfo Hernández, an eccentric business tycoon. In its history as a democratic republic, Colombia has never been governed by a leftist Executive. This is the year there are chances, but Hernández’s victory, which will garner the support of the other candidates, complicates the road again.
Following the results of the first round of elections this Sunday, the second round of the presidential race in Colombia will be disputed between the left and ‘outsider’ and anti-establishment populism. Colombians could not have been more explicit in their indecision between a yearning for change and their historical fear of the left.
Gustavo Petro, head of the Historical Pact, won this Sunday, May 29, in the first round of the presidential elections, and will face a surprising candidate in the June 19 ballot: businessman Rodolfo Hernández.
Petro, an active politician and former member of the M-19 guerrilla movement, obtained 40.3% of the votes according to the count of the National Registry, with 99.9% of the ballot boxes pre-counted. Rodolfo Hernández, for his part, former mayor of the city of Bucaramanga, obtained 28.1% of the vote, leaving the right-wing candidate, Federico Gutiérrez, out of the final contest.
A historical milestone for Colombia
The media had announced this possible scenario for weeks: the possible arrival of the left to power in Colombia would constitute a historical event.
In the Andean nation, the majority governments of the right and even the extreme right succeeded each other for decades. “The left has always been marginal, unlike other countries in the Southern Cone, which have a leftist tradition with more electoral success,” explains Miguel García, professor of Political Science at the Universidad de los Andes, to France 24.
However, the left has gained strength in the country in recent years. The bet was led, above all, by Colombian youth, who demand changes and an improvement in living conditions. In fact, that request was shouted for months last year in the streets of Colombia, during an unprecedented National Strike.
And young people are a key demographic for Gustavo Petro, who has close to 50% support among the country’s youngest voters. The leftist consistently led opinion polls for his promises to redistribute pensions, offer a free public university and change what he says are centuries of deep inequality, but he came within about 10% of dodging the ballot.
An advantage in the first round that will not compensate for the difficulties ahead for the candidate on the left
The victory of Petro, who is running for the third time in an election, would mean, according to Miguel García, “the triumph of a highly critical discourse towards the structures that have traditionally governed Colombia. The triumph also of disapproval towards a society based on a lot of inequality and symbolic hierarchies”.
However, the results of that first round do not mean that the game is won for Petro. Because the past of the favorite candidate in the polls weighs heavily between the debates and public opinion.
The other strong criticism generated by the candidate is the supposed future collapse that his victory would mean for the Colombian economy. His main opponent, Federico Gutiérrez, warned, for example, that the leftist’s economic plans, which include a ban on new oil and gas projects, would, according to him, ruin the country.
A “Chavista Colombia”, the scares of the right but not likely if Petro won
For his part, Petro has rejected repeated accusations that he will imitate the policies of the late former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro.
Regarding this repeated comparison between the current Venezuela and a Colombia governed by the left, the expert Miguel García reacts: “I think that the possibility exists. But with what probability? There is also the probability that an asteroid will fall and the earth will disappear … However, I think those fears are a bit unfounded. Petro represents a lot of uncertainty, to be sure, but not of this kind.”
Throughout an electoral campaign plagued by controversy and accusations, many analysts agreed on one point: the worst scenario for Petro would be to play the second round with the populist Rodolfo Hernández.
The Hernandez Phenomenon
And it turns out that the construction tycoon obtained 28.2% of the votes this Sunday. The septuagenarian has surged in the polls in the past two weeks, buoyed by his colorful social media presence and anti-corruption pledges.
Hernández, 77, himself faces an ongoing investigation into whether he intervened when he was mayor of Bucaramanga in a tender to benefit a company for which his son was lobbying, something he has repeatedly denied.
And in that second round, Hernández could count on the support of a broad ‘anti-petrista’ front: “He represents that conservative modernization so particular to Colombia, which does not question the status quo, but rather the political class and corruption. It is the perfect incarnation of the Latin American outsider, a gimmicky man who says what he thinks. He has a confrontational and authoritative discourse, willing to put an end to the great evils of the country. A mixture of Trump and Bolsonoro.”
But if he wins, the septuagenarian will not have an easy way to govern. Professor de los Andes describes a possible scenario of confrontations with the entire congress: “Hernández does not have a single legislator! He would reach legislative chambers where the left has unprecedented terrain. He would have to approach the center-right sectors, which are precisely the object of his criticism”.
García adds: “Trying to govern without Congress in Colombia is not easy. We have a very effective coalition tradition, and we have never seen that type of dispute.” On Petro’s side, the analyst speaks of a more feasible way to form a coalition, in addition to parting with a large part of Congress from his own political side.
Some results that reflect the fall of the right and “the defeat of a mediocre government”
The big loser of the day was Federico Gutiérrez. The former mayor of Medellín, from the center-right, obtained 5,054,993 votes, equivalent to 23.91% of the total votes. Although the opinion polls had predicted him in a second round, the conservative candidate did not detach himself from the accusations of being an ideological successor to the unpopular president Iván Duque, something that he wanted to distance himself from, without success.
“His defeat reflects the defeat of a mediocre government, which was never linked to the citizenry, which always took the opposite side. The sole example of last year’s protests is enough: when, faced with clear violations of human rights, the president preferred wear a police jacket,” says Miguel García. And indeed, President Iván Duque is going through the final stretch of his term with a disapproval that exceeds 67%.
Between these two candidates who claim a break, the next three weeks, until April 19, will offer a tug-of-war between two proposals for change. The final decision will be made by the Colombians, who this Sunday said yes to the change, but it is not known exactly which one.
With EFE, Reuters and local media
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