Supporters of the Dutch farmer recently warned about the consequences of the war in Ukraine for agriculture in the Netherlands. Such as BoerBurgerBeweging frontwoman Caroline van der Plas, who raised the alarm about possible food shortages. And farmers’ organization LTO called on farmers not to have to pay for the increased price of cattle feed, gas and fertilizer since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
New research from Wageningen University & Research (WUR) nuances these concerns. For the time being, the war would not cause any major problems for Dutch agriculture. In a report published this week, WUR investigated the consequences of the higher costs for Dutch farmers. The prices of important cost items for the agri-sector already rose in 2021, but since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, prices have risen much further. For example, feed prices rose by 20 percent in March 2022 compared to the average price a year earlier. Fertilizer prices are 130 percent higher, labor costs 5 percent and electricity and natural gas prices 60 percent, the report shows.
Yet those higher costs “do not necessarily lead to major problems for all individual companies,” the researchers conclude. This is because higher yields balance the cost increase: yields for farmers have increased in arable farming, pig farming, poultry farming and dairy farming.
However, the differences per agricultural sector are large, emphasizes agricultural economist Petra Berkhout, who co-wrote the report. In arable farming and poultry farming, the higher yields are more than sufficient to offset the costs. The increased milk price, which is now about 20 percent higher than in 2020, can also compensate for the cost increase in dairy farming, provided the price remains at the same level this year.
This is more difficult in pig farming: here too the prices that farmers receive are higher than a year earlier, but that is not enough to recover from previous losses. This sector was already struggling in 2021, partly because of the swine fever and a low price for pork.
In the greenhouse horticulture sector, revenues have fallen since the outbreak of the war, while the sector is struggling with high energy prices. The researchers expect a large drop in income here.
“It is important to emphasize that this is a snapshot in time,” says Berkhout. The researcher does not foresee food shortages. “But affordability is a major bottleneck, also in the Netherlands. On top of the increased energy prices, people with a small budget are also confronted with high food prices.”
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of May 5, 2022
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