Russia’s President Putin could announce a new military mobilization on May 9, “Victory Day”. Experts largely agree.
Update from Tuesday, May 3, 10:15 a.m.: In Ukraine, there are concerns that Russian attacks will escalate significantly in the coming weeks. On Tuesday, several Ukrainian media picked up a report by the US broadcaster CNN on speculation that Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin could declare a state of war in Russia and order general mobilization in just a few days. The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, also spoke of Russian preparations for an open mobilization of soldiers and reservists. There is no evidence for this. So far, Russia has officially only spoken of a “special operation” in Ukraine.
The Kremlin did not initially respond to the latest rumours. In the first few weeks after the attack on the neighboring country on February 24, Moscow commented on the concerns of its own population and emphasized that general mobilization was not planned. Even in the event of such an order, however, the extent would be completely unclear: Russia’s legislation also provides for the possibility of partial mobilization, which would then only affect individual regions of the giant country.
Ukraine war: May 9 as a “turning point”? Klitschko warns against “lies”
+++ 4.45 p.m.: Wladimir Klitschko, ex-boxing world champion and brother of Kiev mayor Vitali Klitschko, has commented on the war forecast from May 9th. In an interview with the TV station Phoenix he said that this was extremely unsafe as one could only expect “lies” from the Kremlin.
“There’s a huge difference between being scared, which is actually a good thing, and being worried but not being cowardly. And I would also like to warn the Western world not to be cowardly, we must stand together against this aggressive Russia and against this aggressive policy of Russia and its army, without being cowardly, with one front. And that’s why I don’t want to comment on what will happen on May 9th. Will there be a mobilization? We can’t really rely on the information coming from Russia because lying is endless,” Klitschko said in an interview.
Ukraine War: “Turning Point” on May 9th? British Foreign Secretary speaks out
Update from Monday, May 2nd, 2:30 p.m.: Numerous experts have recently commented on the possible further course of the war in Ukraine. The consensus forecast: Russia will use May 9, the “Day of Victory” over Nazi Germany, not only for the pompous annual military parade, but also for renewed mobilization of the armed forces. The British Defense Secretary has now agreed to this forecast.
Ben Wallace said in an interview with LBC radiothat he expects a corresponding announcement from Vladimir Putin in Moscow. It is likely that the Russian President will declare a global war against “Nazis” as part of the “military operation”. Thus, Putin could the heavy losses in the Ukraine war possibly “consolidate,” as Wallace put it. Accordingly, it is considered an option that reservist groups could be sent to Ukraine. The British Defense Secretary described the Kremlin’s attempts to cover up the losses as “pathetic”.
May 9th as a “turning point” in the Ukraine war – Putin will probably change Russia’s strategy
First report from Friday, April 29, 09:00 a.m.: Moscow – May 9th, a Monday, takes place in Vladimir Putin’s War planning plays a crucial role. On this date, the Kremlin celebrates the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, “Victory Day”. To mark this, soldiers march in Moscow and a pompous military parade takes place. On that Monday, Putin would probably be happy to announce another victory: in the Ukraine war.
Given that Russia’s offensive in Donbass is progressing slowly, this scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely. That’s why experts are now assuming that Putin will change his strategy. Experts from the think tank “Center for European Political Analysis” forecast in one reportthat Russia will mobilize new troops for the war on May 9th. “Russia’s military believes it is a mistake to limit the goals of the war. They argue that Russia isn’t fighting Ukraine, it’s NATO,” the analysis reads.
“Victory Day” on May 9: is Vladimir Putin changing his strategy in the Ukraine war?
Experts from the Royal United Services Institute argue similarly. In the latest study it says: “May 9 has changed from a deadline for victory to the beginning of a huge mobilization.” The sluggish Donbass offensive requires a larger army strength. In this context, the experts speak of a “turning point” in the Ukraine-War: “May 9 could be the day when the Russian leadership no longer speaks of a ‘military special operation’, but of ‘war’.”
The assessment of the experts mentioned also shares Michael Mazarr of the Rand Corporation think tank. “It could be threatening gestures by the Russians. But it could also be true and Putin is actually changing course. The risk of such a scenario cannot be ignored,” Mazarr said in a statement.
In the course of the appointment of Alexander Dvornikov as the new supreme commander of the Russian army During the Ukraine war, it became known that Putin had proclaimed “Victory Day” as the target date for the invasion. This was based, among other things, on an internal briefing by Nato out. It said, among other things: “The Russian military leadership is under enormous political pressure to finally achieve a military breakthrough in Ukraine, which can be presented as a victory at the parade on May 9.” (tu with dpa / AFP)
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