A frequently asked question since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is whether Moscow could use its tactical nuclear weapons in a very limited area, which would break a taboo that has existed since 1945.
The hypothesis resurfaced shortly after hostilities began, when Russian leader Vladimir Putin said he had ordered his generals to “put the Russian army’s deterrent forces on special combat alert.”
And CIA chief William Burns has just broached the subject again, speaking of Moscow’s potential recourse to low-powered or tactical nuclear weapons.
“It is possible that President Putin and Russian leaders will fall into despair, given the setbacks they have suffered so far from a military point of view”, he argued, although he admits “not having found concrete signs (…) that could exacerbate” the concerns. westerners in this regard.
A tactical nuclear weapon, with a smaller explosive charge than a strategic nuclear weapon, is transported by a launch vehicle with a range of less than 5,500 km.
“There is a real risk. (The Russians) desperately need military victories to turn them into political levers,” Mathieu Boulègue, from the British analysis center Chatham House, told AFP.
“The chemical weapon would not change the course of the war. A tactical nuclear weapon that would destroy a Ukrainian city, yes. Unlikely, but not impossible. And in that case, it would be 70 years of nuclear deterrence theory going down.”
But there is still a big step between risk and reality.
Russian doctrine is the subject of debate. Some experts and the military, especially in Washington, maintain that Moscow abandoned the Soviet doctrine of not using a nuclear weapon first.
Moscow’s options would now include the theory of “escalation to de-escalation”, that is, using the weapon in limited proportions to force NATO to retreat.
– 1,588 warheads deployed –
But recent Russian statements have cast doubt on this interpretation. Moscow would only use the nuclear weapon in Ukraine if there was an “existential threat” against Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said, citing one of the points of official Russian doctrine.
From a technical point of view, Moscow is well equipped. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “1,588 Russian nuclear warheads are said to be deployed”, including 812 on land-based missiles, 576 on submarine missiles and 200 on bombers. Just under 1,000 heads are in storage.
For Pavel Luzin, an analyst at the Moscow-based think tank Riddle, Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon “to demoralize an adversary, to prevent the enemy from continuing to fight.” The objective is above all “demonstrative”, he adds to AFP.
“But if the opponent wants to keep fighting, it can be used more directly.”
Indeed, threats can be minimized at the highest levels, but they have one effect: risk cannot be entirely ruled out.
– Huge political cost –
“In case of impasse or humiliation, it is possible to imagine a vertical climb. It is part of Russian strategic culture to intimidate and dig deep to reduce escalation,” said a senior French official, on condition of anonymity. “Putin did not enter this war to lose it,” he adds.
Others prefer to believe that the absolute taboo remains. If Putin decides to destroy a single Ukrainian city to show his resolve, the area would potentially be devoid of human life for decades.
“The political cost would be monstrous. They would lose what little support they have left. The Indians would back down, the Chinese too,” William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) told AFP.
“I don’t think Putin will do that,” he adds. The fact is that, apart from the Ukrainian question, Russia would not enjoy the status of a military superpower without nuclear weapons today. The country would not pose such a threat with its conventional forces alone.
Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated immense destructiveness, but at the same time it has shown real tactical, operational and logistical weaknesses.
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