Columns Finland is once again part of the big game in Europe, and there is a danger

When In Europe, a big game was played in the 1930s, the name of one small piece on the game board was Kolosjoki. Significant nickel deposits had been found in the Petsamo area of ​​Finland, around which a refinery and the city of Kolosjoki were built.

As Europe plunged into the war, both British and German companies became interested in ore resources. The nickel craving was created by the needs of the countries ’armies and the political interests that arise from them.

When Finland moved to the German camp, the mine cut metal for the needs of the Nazi regime. When the Finnish war alongside Germany was over and the Nazi regime was destroyed, Petsamo, Kolosjoki and the mining area passed to the Soviet Union.

In the big picture of World War II and the human catastrophe in Europe, Petsamo was a side show. For Finland, it was a stark reminder political country risk on the realization: how a small country that is playing poorly on its cards can instantly be crushed by economic, political and military interests when the big game of the great powers starts.

Last For decades, Finland has been considered a country with minimal country risk. The risk is mainly talked about in countries with unstable governance, unrest, division of the people or serious brawls with neighboring countries.

Elevated country risk is a poison to the economy: hardly anyone is excited about investing in a factory or mine in an area where the threat of revolution or war is floating in the air. Particularly effectively, even a slightly increased country risk expels foreign investors, who usually have enough options.

Russian According to information from the market, the war of aggression in Ukraine has also triggered a reflection on country risk in Finland as well. As an investor contemplating the location of his money raises his eyes slightly from Ukraine, he sees a non-NATO EU country with 1,300 kilometers of common border with Russia. What does the investor think then?

In these thoughts, business organizations see a threat to the Finnish economy.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increases Finland’s country risk. If the risk increases too much, it will reduce investment in Finland and the attractiveness of our country for a skilled workforce, ”said a press release sent by the Confederation of Finnish Industries, the Central Chamber of Commerce, the Association of Family Businesses and Finnish Entrepreneurs in March.

According to the organizations, the solution to country risk would be Finland’s NATO membership.

At the same time a new kind of big game is starting in Europe. Russia’s raw material reserves will move behind the new Iron Curtain, at least for the time being. The direction of authoritarian China is difficult to predict. Is it playing with Russia, the West, or both?

In Europe, Germany has thrown off the cloak of a kind pupil, armed Ukraine, invests heavily in defense and is ready to invest in energy so that it can break free from its dependence on Russia.

As the world darkens, our gaze turns again to the basics, such as natural resources. There are them in Finland. For example, Finland is the only producer of cobalt needed in the battery industry in Europe. It is the battery minerals that make Finland and Sweden interesting for the Western economic system.

Finland For decision makers, economics is one more variable in the assessment of how future security solutions are made. NATO or not, the country risk alongside unpredictable Russia must be taken seriously.

When the war in Ukraine began, one piece of news left behind in a coronavirus pandemic a year ago came to mind. In March 2021, the Russian company Nornickel closed its polluting nickel smelter in the current city of Nickel, on the former Kolosjoki.

The next big game will be played elsewhere.

The author is the forerunner of the editorial office of economics and politics.