Item for Affaritaliani.it of Forza Italia senator Virginia Tiraboschi, who chose not to be present at Montecitorio due to the intervention of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. In this article you explain the reasons for your gesture
One day something will be written about the period between 2014 and 2022, as an interval in the evolution of European geopolitics of the 21st century. The dramatic and in many ways unexpected 2014 ultimately only led to a temporary truce between Moscow and the West, starting immediately after preparations for a new round of confrontation. This preparation has not been hindered by the tumultuous 4-year Trump presidency since the release of the UK from the EU, from chronic crises in Middle Eastfrom the rise of Beijing, nor from the pandemic.
In this uncertain framework, no definitive conclusions can be drawn on what the new European reality can become in the coming years and decades. It all depends on the final outcome of the Russian military operation, on the nature and results of the next Ukrainian political transition, on the stability of the anti-Russian unity of theWest, from the dynamics of global geopolitical balances, from the gravity of common problems and from many other factors. However, some considerations are possible for which, yesterday, I was not present in the classroom on the occasion of the speech Of Zalenskyconsiderations that will ultimately plunge Russia and Europe into a very long economic crisis and that will re-emerge the clash for world economic leadership between China and the US:
1) Russia has unknowingly taken away from China – so it seems – the role of main enemy and opponent of the West. The containment of the ambitions of Beijing it is certainly not removed from the agenda of Washington and its European partners, it is simply relegated to the background. On the Ukrainian question, Beijing it has taken an extremely cautious, perhaps even detached, position. Xi Jinping stressed the respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine. Only clear attempts by the Chinese to solve the problem Taiwan by military means they could change the current Western priority scale, but similar moves would seem unlikely in the near future.
2) Moscow no longer has allies in West: Even figures like the leader of the French right, Marine Le Pen agrees to condemn Russian actions.
3) Russia is destined for a long pause in international dialogue at the highest levels: the numerous visits of Western leaders a fly on the eve of the crisis are to be attributed to the number of bankruptcies. Russia was not convinced of anything, a geopolitical and diplomatic compromise proved unattainable.
4) Moscow faces a long and very expensive arms race. It will be difficult to go back to talking about the moratorium on the expansion of BORN.
5) Russia will become a permanent and priority target of Western economic sanctions. It takes a long time for Europe to completely get rid of Russian supplies, especially energy, but I don’t think we can go back. The farewell to Nord Stream 2 it will be followed by a reduction in purchases of Russian gas, although alternative sources will prove to be very expensive. The same is true for other commodities or world markets, in which Russia still maintains a significant position.
6) Moscow will be constantly cut off from the existing and still emerging global technological chains that will determine the transition of the world economy towards a new paradigm. Moscow’s technological cooperation withWest it will decrease, while Russia’s technological dependence on China will increase.
7) We will see a tough battle between fly and the West to breach the minds and hearts of men and women living in developing countries: Russia will be presented by the West as a country that has challenged the fundamental norms of international law that undermine the foundations of security not only European, but global. The strategic objective will be the maximum isolation of Moscow on the world stage, to block Russian relations in foreign policy and to compensate in the economic field at least in part the damage caused by the interruption of cooperation with theWest.
How long will Russia be able to withstand this pressure? Will he be able to find realistic options for developing an effective counter strategy that can threaten and challenge Western opponents? Will he be able to find non-Western resources to modernize the economy and welfare state? All these questions, not so new to fly, are of particular relevance, but an answer set in stone, I believe is impossible even for the most experienced analyst of wars and international politics. Instead, what I feel I can say with great concern will be the severe economic crisis into which theEurope and Russia with a risk of possible future metastases also in other parts of the planet.
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