According to the American newspaper, “Washington Post”, the Ukrainians focused on Russia’s weak point, which is the “cutting of fuel supplies”, which proved a huge impact on the battlefield, pointing out that “with Russian vehicles grounded due to lack of fuel, Ukrainian forces attacked them, leaving them in a burning wreck.” , combined with “defense in depth” tactics, makes it difficult for Russian forces to maneuver easily.
She also indicated that Ukrainian volunteers blew up bridges, piled tires and set up roadblocks, in addition to the government’s arming of citizens with rifles, Molotov cocktails and other weapons, which contributed to the steadfastness.
Commenting on this, US security analyst Irina Zukerman said, “Targeting fuel supply vehicles and disrupting Russian supply chain networks is not the only factor in Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine.”
Zuckerman added, in an interview with “Sky News Arabia”, that “there are many other factors, including the sudden weakness of the Russian Air Force, and Ukraine’s ability to maintain air superiority despite having much smaller air forces, and being in dire need of combat aircraft. “.
She pointed to the importance of the wind and the need for the Russians to fly at a low altitude to the ground, as well as the lack of training hours for pilots.
Another problem, she explained, was that Russian pilots were not prepared for the standards of the challenge they were going to face, as the Stingers and Javelins missiles also cost the Russians dearly. Aside from the aerial factor,
“There was a big problem with the parked vehicles that simply ran out of fuel, weren’t able to reach the target areas, even when not being attacked, and actually required additional help from other vehicles.”
There is also poor coordination and a lack of logistical planning and tactics because Russia was not prepared for the level of resistance it encountered; by contrast, the Ukrainians were prepared for a strategy of encircling Russia, and did not form a united and porous front.
She added that many Russian soldiers were misled about the goals of their presence, “while they were not prepared; many were demoralized, some surrendered en masse or fled, and still others lack basic supplies such as food.”
She pointed out that “Russia lost political support among political parties and loyal civilians, although they sympathized with Russian culture, they did not want to be invaded and take over their country by force, especially after the annexation of Crimea, in addition to the Ukrainian units also have great experience over the past eight years in fighting separatists.
Moreover, thousands of Ukrainians have returned home to fight, and many international volunteers have also come, while the Russians have not prepared enough troops for extended operations in a vast country, let alone occupied. Russia also miscalculated the number of Missiles to be manufactured and other types of equipment that will now take time to manufacture and deliver. There has also been a miscalculation of intelligence and counterintelligence on the part of Russia.”
“The fall of Kyiv”
On the extent of the possibility of Kyiv’s fall, she said, “It will not happen quickly, and there are expectations that the confrontation will take at least 4 or 6 weeks, and during this period many things can happen that will change the course of the war, such as the impact of sanctions and additional aid to Ukraine, Whether Russia can resupply additional forces and equipment, weather conditions, the ability of each side to regroup in light of changing circumstances, the extent, impact, and success of hybrid warfare, whether or not Russia begins to apply pressure on NATO countries through more extensive cyberattacks “.
She pointed out, “The impact of maritime navigation with Turkey closing the Bosphorus, thus creating a big dilemma for Russian warships, which will worsen over time, forcing Russia to face simultaneous difficulties in Syria, and it is likely that Kyiv will be the last area to be captured; given the presence of the government There and all defenses are ready to stand on the ground to make sure they don’t fall, however, due to Russia’s military superiority, Western intelligence still expects Russia to eventually take over the entire country.
In the meantime, a “diplomatic solution” is being ruled out because it is out of the question, and Ukraine is not inclined to sacrifice any other territory, and will not trust Putin to make any commitments to reduce his involvement, as no actor can be an effective guarantor, and Putin cannot afford Going back without some face-saving victories.”
And she considered that “Western military support to Ukraine at the present time is absolutely insufficient,” noting that “without a no-fly zone, the balance is tilted in Russia’s favor with the need to provide combat aircraft and defensive shields such as the Patriot, where defensive weapons aim to reduce civilian casualties. “.