Search PowerDate conducted from August 14 to 16, 2022 shows that 43% of voters who received a payment from Auxílio Brasil in the last month failed to pay a bill in the same period. In this stratum, 48% managed to keep their payment slips up to date.
The default rate is slightly higher among those who did not benefit from the social program in July: 49%. Another 44% of this group did not fail to pay any account.
The social benefit is the government’s bet to improve the president’s image among the poorest voters and boost their voting intentions in this stratum. In addition to boosting the amount paid as of this month, in recent weeks the federal administration has acted to reduce prices and improve living conditions in the country. The close percentages of default – a difference of 6 pp – between the 2 groups suggest that, until now, the payment of the social program has had a limited effect on the beneficiaries’ pockets.
The survey was carried out by PowerDategroup company Power360 Journalism, with its own resources. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. Data were collected from August 14 to 16, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 3,500 interviews in 331 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. The TSE registration is BR-02548/2022.
To reach 3,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerDate makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees who faithfully represent the entire population are found. Learn more about the methodology by reading this text.
CURVES IN 2022
In the general population, the indices have varied within the survey’s margin of error of 2 percentage points since the beginning of the year. In the last month, 47% of the population failed to pay a bill. Another 45% kept their tickets up to date.
The historical curve, with minimal oscillation from late January to August, suggests that government actions had little or no effect on this. The mood of the voter with bills late to pay is always worse in relation to the shift government. Therefore, it becomes an obstacle to Bolsonarowhich hopes to earn electorally with Auxílio Brasil.
DEMOGRAPHIC CLEARINGS
The percentages of those who did not pay any bills vary little between regions of the country. In terms of income, they reach 50% among those who receive up to 2 minimum wages and remain high (44%) in the other income brackets. They indicate that default, today, is widespread and persistent, present in all regions and income brackets.
POWERDATA
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DIFFERENCES IN SURVEYS
This presidential election is proving challenging for companies doing research. There are many results indicating divergent signals. It was difficult to know what the real trend is at this moment.
It is important to say that all polls are right, each within the methodology chosen. Each system can have advantages and disadvantages, depending on the situation they want to determine.
In 2018, for example, there was much “embarrassed vote” in Jair Bolsonaro. Some face-to-face surveys had difficulty capturing this type of preference. Telephone polls, on the other hand, gave more comfort to part of the voters who opted for the then presidential candidate for the PSL (today, Bolsonaro is in the PL).
It is still unclear what impact each methodology has on data collection. But it is already known that in-person polls tend to have a result pointing to a looser leadership of Lula. And telephone surveys (especially automated and neutral ones, with a recording asking the questions, like the PowerDate) tend to show a tighter contest.
In the United States, face-to-face polling has not been used for decades to measure voting intentions at the national level. The extreme polarized environment hinders data collection when the interviewer and the interviewee are face to face.
In short, it is important to note that it is not a question of there being an error in one or another research. They are different methodologies. At the end of this campaign it will be possible to know which system was most appropriate to point out trends in the current Brazilian political moment.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
O Power 360 maintains a collection with thousands of surveys with known methodologies and on which it was possible to verify the origin of the information. There have been studies carried out since the 2000 municipal elections. This is the largest and longest-running survey of electoral research available on the Brazilian internet.
The database is interactive and allows you to follow the progress of each candidate. Access the Research Aggregator clicking here.
The research information began to be compiled by journalist Fernando Rodrigues, editorial director of the Power 360on its website, in the year 2000. To access the old page with the surveys, click here.
METHODOLOGY
The search PowerDate was carried out from August 14 to 16, 2022. 3,500 people aged 16 years or older were interviewed in 322 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. A parametric weighting was applied to compensate for disproportionalities in the variables of sex, age, education level, region and income. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA (Audible Response Unit) system, in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds through the keyboard of the device. The confidence interval of the study is 95%.
For readability, search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100. Differences between the total frequencies and the percentages in tables of crossover of variables may appear due to non-response occurrences. This study was carried out with the resources of the PowerDatea research company that is part of the media group Power360 Journalism. The results are published in an editorial partnership with the TV Cultura. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-02548/2022.
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